We’re almost a month into the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season and there have already been some major upsets, standout performances, and most importantly, the complete and total dismantling of the “poor” market smallholder trope.
And hopefully, it will provide some positive momentum toward the ridiculous push by supportive owners and fans to cancel the 2027 season to boost franchise values.
In just the first few weeks of the season, we’ve seen several high-profile contract extensions for young prospects in small markets, including one that set a record for the largest monetary guarantee ever given to a player who hadn’t yet played in the big leagues.
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Then the San Diego Padres, who play in one of the league’s smallest markets, were sold for a staggering $3.9 billion to the owner of Chelsea Football Club. That sale price was $1.4 billion more than the price Steve Cohen paid for the New York Mets just five and a half years ago. Simply put, there is no longer any reasonable debate: the baseball business is booming.
But that’s the financial aspect, which is only part of the “worry.” The other? The supposed problem of competitive balance in baseball. Well, it’s early, but the start of the season has already shown why those “issues” have been wildly exaggerated and weaponized by owners pushing for a salary cap. And those same New York Mets have shown how absurd the rush has become.
New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) watches during an at-bat against the Washington Nationals during the fourth inning at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia, on August 19, 2025. (Amber Searls/Image Images)
New York Mets’ losing streak and small-market success are the story of 2026
That lament, that small-market teams can’t compete with the big payrolls of big-market teams, fundamentally misunderstands the gaps between baseball teams. Yes, there are significant advantages to having more money to spend on players. But that money must be spent wisely for it to matter. The Mets could be the perfect example of how money can’t fix everything.
The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the league in payroll and caused massive outrage in the offseason by signing Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz. Yes, the Dodgers are in first place… by a half-game over the small-market Padres. Diaz allowed three runs without leaving on Sunday afternoon, raising his ERA to over 10, and Kyle Tucker has been the 78th most valuable hitter in baseball so far, behind Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman. The Dodgers still got off to a great start, but it’s mostly due to exceptional performances from the bottom of the lineup, players like Andy Pages, Dalton Rushing and Miguel Rojas.
The Mets, who are second behind Los Angeles with a $370 million payroll and more than $500 million in payouts this year thanks to the luxury tax, have now lost 11 straight games after blowing a ninth-inning lead against the Cubs on Sunday. They are tied for the worst record in baseball, have scored the second fewest runs in the league and are now eight games out of first place in the National League East.
The Mets are also 43-60 since the end of June 2025, one of the worst records in baseball during that period. Again, this is a team that will have spent almost a billion dollars on payroll over the last two years. They missed the playoffs in 2025 and the poor start reduced their postseason chances to just 41% this year.
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Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider yells at umpire Dan Merzel during the fifth inning of their MLB game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at the Rogers Center in Toronto, Ontario on April 7, 2026. (Cole Burston/Getty Images)
Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays, who reached the 2025 World Series and have the fourth-highest payroll in baseball at approximately $290 million, are currently in last place in the American League East at 8-13. They have already been outscored by 26 runs.
What about the Philadelphia Phillies, always one of the biggest spending teams in baseball? They rank fifth in team payroll at $285 million, with a luxury tax payroll of $320 million. They are in fourth place in the NL East at 8-13, and their -38 run differential is literally the worst in the majors.
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The Houston Astros rank seventh in payroll with nearly $240 million. They are in last place in the American League West and have allowed the most runs of any team in the sport. Even worse than the Rockies, who play their home games at Coors Field.
What about the “poor” small market teams?
Well, the Cincinnati Reds are in first place in the NL Central at 14-8, ahead of the big-market Cubs, who have spent more than $100 million more than them. The A’s are tied for first place in the American League West. The Cleveland Guardians are once again defying the run differential gods and are in first place in the American League Central, despite a payroll well under $100 million. The Tampa Bay Rays are in second place in the American League East Division, just half a game back. Miami, the team with the lowest payroll in baseball, roughly $300 million behind the Mets, is in second place and has already outscored the Mets’ offense by 28 runs.
Does this mean that the classification will end like this? No, not necessarily. The Blue Jays and Astros, for example, have suffered a series of pitching injuries and the Mets are without Juan Soto. But that’s the point. Injuries, poor performance and expensive veterans who decline as they age can easily derail a season for richer teams. Yes, the Dodgers have excelled with huge payrolls, but they have done so by building depth through minor league development and targeting small-dollar signings. Is Mookie Betts out? Rojas, Alex Freeland or Hyesong Kim can take over. Will Smith need more time off? Dalton Rushing, a former top-35 prospect, is the backup. As franchise extensions and sales have shown, there is a lot of money floating around in baseball. And as the rankings so far demonstrate, higher payrolls don’t always correlate with success. MLB already has competitive balance. We do not need to cancel an entire season, which despite their arguments, would be exclusively to enrich the league owners, to achieve this.
