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If you’re thinking about betting on NFL Draft odds for the No. 1 overall pick, don’t waste your time.
With odds of -20,000 (meaning it takes a $200 bet to win a dollar), Fernando Mendoza is the heavy favorite. The Indiana quarterback is practically signed, sealed and delivered to the Las Vegas Raiders.
But things get more interesting from there.
“When someone is a heavy favorite, the conversation seems to shift to the No. 2 pick. And it does,” said Joey Feazel, head of football trades at Caesars Sports. “That’s the highest bet point, the highest bet market right now.”
Feazel helps break down the most notable 2026 NFL Draft odds, ahead of the Thursday-Saturday event in Pittsburgh.
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information age
Before addressing the No. 2 overall pick, it’s first worth noting how NFL Draft betting differs from what sportsbooks typically deal with.
“In the trading department, we like to use math,” Feazel said, alluding to how odds are set for games. “But the NFL Draft is based on information. When a bet is based on information, the difficulty is deciding if it is a rumor or if the bettor on the other side has information. And if a rumor is true or not.
“When you take math out of the equation, it’s usually not as useful to us.”
Astute bettors often play heavily into the NFL Draft odds and tend to do well. It is a difficult event for betting houses to win.
“We’ve won a few times and we’re certainly trying to win. But we don’t expect much of the information to come out in our favor,” Feazel said.
Two man battle
The No. 2 overall pick is still in flux, though it’s clearly a two-man battle between Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese and Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey.
In fact, it’s so close that, as of Tuesday afternoon, Reese and Bailey are -115 co-favorites at Caesars. After those two, the odds extend to +6000 for Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles.
It’s no surprise that information is affecting this NFL prop bet.
“It was starting to look like David Bailey was going to be the No. 2 pick, so we moved him to the favorite. But then it was thought that the Jets might be trying to trade the pick,” Feazel said.
Don’t be surprised if Reese and Bailey’s odds remain volatile. And if a trade happens at the No. 2 spot, things could get a lot murkier.
“There could be someone who wasn’t even expected to be in the mix,” Feazel said.
QB or not QB
Among the many prop bets available for the NFL Draft, one of the most popular is the number of quarterbacks selected in the first round.
This year, expectations are quite low. Virtually all bookmakers have the Over/Under of 1.5. However, the Over 1.5 is a growing favorite, now at -225 odds, while the Under 1.5 is a +175 underdog.
Mendoza is obviously a lock. The deciding factor is whether Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is deemed worthy of the first round.
“It’s been going up and down. And it correlates with Simpson’s price for being a first-round pick,” Feazel said.
In fact, it correlates directly. In the NFL Draft’s separate proposal for players who will be first-round picks, Simpson is -225.
However, there is a difference of opinion among punters.
“It’s been a two-way move, all based on speculation about Simpson,” Feazel said. “There are rumors that the Cardinals or someone else might be interested.”
Arizona has the No. 3 overall pick, which it certainly won’t use on Simpson, then the second pick of the second round, No. 34 overall. The idea is that the Cardinals could try to move up from that No. 34 spot, to the first round, to select Simpson.
But if you think Arizona holds its own and Simpson falls to Round 2, then there might be some betting value on under-1.5 quarterbacks. At +175, a $100 bet would net a profit of $175 ($275 total payout).
Most popular works
Feazel said three more markets consistently draw attention in NFL Draft prop betting: Players will be picked in the top 5, top 10 or first round.
“Bettors are trying to find value at a positive price,” Feazel said. “One thing we saw recently, with the Giants moving back into the top 10, was interest in Jordyn Tyson, the Arizona State wide receiver.”
Tyson had hamstring problems that kept him out of the NFL combine and ASU’s initial pro day. And previous injuries are also a concern, including a torn multiple ligaments in his knee in 2022.
On Friday, however, he had a private workout that, by all indications, went well. And rumors are that the Giants are a strong potential suitor, after they traded Pro Bowl defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals for the 10th pick.
“At first, we had Tyson at +220 for the first 10 picks. Now, we’re at -375,” Feazel said of the wide receiver who went from an underdog to a favorite in that market. “He is expected to be chosen early.”
Tyson’s top 10 relates to the market for the number of wide receivers to be included in the first round. Feazel said Caesars opened Over 5.5 as a modest -125 favorite, but those odds are now -190.
Additionally, Caesars opened support for offensive linemen selected in the first round at 7.5, with odds of -115 on both the Over and Under, a pick of them. However, Over 7.5 is now a significant -280 favorite.
“A lot of people expect a lot of offensive linemen, from picks 10 to 20,” Feazel said.
