Someone is buying $2.1 billion worth of bitcoin through ETFs. Someone else is using that offer to get out.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have seen eight consecutive days of inflows totaling $2.1 billion through April 23, according to SoSoValue. This is the longest streak since the nine-day streak in October 2025 that took bitcoin to its all-time high of $126,000. On April 23 alone it generated $223.21 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for approximately 75% of the increase at $167.49 million and Fidelity’s FBTC the only significant outflow at $16.93 million.
Bitcoin has risen from $68,000 to $77,000 during the streak, a 12% move that has coincided almost perfectly with the return of ETF supply. The ETF’s cumulative net inflows since its launch now stand at $58 billion, and total assets have reached $102 billion, representing 6.5% of bitcoin’s market capitalization.
But here’s the part the ETF data doesn’t say.
A Glassnode report from earlier this week showed that Bitcoin just regained its True Market Mean at $78,100, which tracks the average cost basis of actively traded supply. This is the first time that level has been recovered since mid-January and historically marks the transition from bearish market conditions to something more constructive.
The problem is the next level. The short-term holder’s cost basis sits at $80,100, which is the average entry price for anyone who has bought in the last 155 days. A move above it would see more than 54% of recent buyers take profits.
In all previous cases this cycle, that threshold has coincided with the formation of local highs, as short-term holders use the rally to break even and exit. This is the second time the structure has been installed and the first time it broke.
Profits made by short-term holders have already skyrocketed to $4.4 million per hour, according to Glassnode. The $1.5 million threshold has preceded all local highs so far this year. The current reading is three times higher.
The configuration from here is specific. Bitcoin perpetual asset funding remains negative, meaning shorts pay longs. Saturday’s brief squeeze took bitcoin to $78,000 briefly before the Hormuz reversal sent it back.
A second squeeze, built on ETF supply and spot demand that Glassnode has noted is picking up offshore, is a clear path to $80,000. The question is whether that breakout holds against the distribution of short-term holders or whether it sells in the same way that all local highs have been sold in this cycle.
March’s seven-day streak broke the same week the price marked its local high. The IBIT has alone shouldered most of the current run, while smaller issuers recorded mixed flows. The structure is not identical but the pattern rhymes.
The ETF offer is real. The outflow liquidity it provides to short-term holders is also real. It’s worth watching which side wins at $80,000.
