Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded bitcoin holder said Thursday on
In a Game of Thrones-style image, dressed in a fur coat, not particularly suitable for when winter ends, and riding a horse, Saylor, whose company recently added 13,927 bitcoins, bringing the total BTC in its treasury to 780,897, said “Winter is over,” a statement that not all crypto analysts agree with.
“Even if winter is over for bitcoin, which I don’t agree with, it’s still very cold for altcoins,” said Jason Fernandes, market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam.
For Mati Greenspan, former senior market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economics, what bitcoin and the broader crypto market have experienced since the October 10 “flash crash,” which triggered roughly $19 billion in forced liquidations in 24 hours, doesn’t even qualify as a crypto winter.
“I’m not sure I would exactly classify what we just saw as a crypto winter,” Greenspan said, but rather it was “more of a big pullback within a broader bull market.”
Greenspan, however, agrees with what Saylor seems to suggest: Bitcoin has bottomed and is likely to go higher from here. “Yes, I think it is very likely that we have hit rock bottom,” he said.
Greenspan and other experts say Saylor’s comments, along with his company’s continued bitcoin purchases, suggest a transition toward a more permanent institutional era of bitcoin. A new cycle characterized by corporate bitcoin treasury market dominance and a shift in institutional sentiment.
Adoption of the nation-state
Still, institutional adoption is just one piece of the puzzle.
“Yes, greater institutional adoption will kick off this next stage, but what Saylor is missing is nation-state adoption, which is certainly right around the corner,” Greenspan said.
The cryptocurrency founder and market analyst said that to date, the cryptocurrency industry has experienced three distinct adoption cycles.
The first, he said, was driven by early adopters in 2013. And then came the “mass retail awakening of 2017” and, now, institutional adoption in 2021.
“The fourth and final important factor is adoption by nation-states, which I think will happen very soon, especially with the United States abruptly changing course during President Donald Trump’s second term,” Greenspan said.
“Imagine central banks adding bitcoin to their balance sheets to maintain price stability, similar to how they added gold in the past,” he added.
According to Greenspan, the adoption of the nation-state is already moving beyond theory and reaching government balance sheets. Under Trump, for example, the United States plans a strategic reserve of bitcoins, although it is not formalized or operational; the government already holds approximately 300,000 BTC. El Salvador continues its daily purchase program towards a treasury of 7,500 BTC, while China and the United Kingdom hold approximately 190,000 BTC and 61,000 BTC, respectively. Activity is also emerging at the sub-sovereign level, with entities such as Wisconsin and New Jersey introducing bitcoin exposure within public pension allocations.
