ISLAMABAD:
With prospects of imminent talks between Iran and the United States diminishing, attention has also shifted away from Islamabad, at least for now.
Pakistan has remained in the global spotlight since the United States and Iran first agreed to a temporary ceasefire three weeks ago, leading to groundbreaking direct talks between the two adversaries since 1979.
Over the past ten days, Pakistan has twice come close to hosting another round of talks. But Iran’s preconditions, such as lifting the US naval blockade, prevented the second round from taking place.
Since then, secondary diplomacy has taken over. Islamabad may no longer be in the spotlight, but it remains a critical player guiding efforts behind the scenes.
It was through Pakistan that Iran recently shared a proposal with the United States to end the war.
While exact details were not available, the proposed plan envisioned first reopening the Strait of Hormuz before serious discussions on other issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.
The United States said it would not accept the current Iranian proposal.
In a social media post on Tuesday, US President Trump said Iran had informed the United States that it is “in a ‘state of collapse,'” insisting that Tehran wants the Strait of Hormuz opened as they “try to figure out its leadership.”
Aside from differences on major issues, Iran and the United States have divergent approaches on how to end the conflict.
Iran wants a step-by-step approach and does not want to sign a deal hastily. Meanwhile, the United States is pushing for an “all-in-one deal” covering all contentious issues, including the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues.
Washington believes that lifting the naval blockade in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz would take away its key influence at the negotiating table.
With the United States having reservations about the Iranian proposal, American media reports suggest that Tehran could soon present a revised set of plans to Washington through Pakistan.
This shows that the diplomatic process, although advancing at a slow pace, has not stopped.
Meanwhile, Iran is trying, in parallel, to develop a regional framework bypassing the United States to address some of the pressing issues.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman and Russia, and also made two stops in Islamabad.
Similarly, Iran’s top diplomat spoke with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France and Turkey to discuss the evolving situation.
Although Russia supported Iran and President Putin offered to help resolve the issue, Oman does not appear willing to accept Iran’s proposal to exercise joint control of the Strait of Hormuz.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia of the Gulf countries called an extraordinary meeting to discuss possible options.
But unity among the ranks of the Gulf countries suffered a serious blow when the United Arab Emirates decided on Tuesday to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a cartel that controls oil supplies to ensure price stability in the market.
Some observers see it as the first major sign of how the war between Iran and the United States has changed the global order forever.
The United Arab Emirates has decided to leave OPEC, a cartel established in the 1960s to regulate the supply of oil to international markets.
OPEC, which initially had five members, was later joined by other oil-producing nations. It controls 36 percent of the world’s crude oil supply and holds 80 percent of the world’s crude oil reserves.
OPEC limits the production of its members to maintain price stability in the market.
The United Arab Emirates, OPEC’s second largest producer, wanted to increase supply but could not do so because the cartel would not allow it.
Now, after leaving OPEC, the United Arab Emirates can increase its oil supply.
This can increase competition and benefit end consumers.
But the downside is that this can increase volatility in the markets and other nations may also leave OPEC.
This is just one aspect. According to some observers, there will be a new security architecture in the region after the war between Iran and the United States.
It’s just the beginning, they add.
