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One of the best things about series betting is the hedging opportunities. You can cancel bets you placed before a series if you don’t like the look of it.
Sure, it might cost you, but think about it. The Denver Nuggets were the favorites to win the series over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
If you had taken Minnesota, you could have taken cover and taken Denver a few days ago. Of all the remaining series in the NBA, this seems the most likely for a team that was trailing 3-1 to win the series.
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The Nuggets don’t look like a team that dominated in the regular season or even one that has an elite player in Nikola Jokić. This was another spectacular year for Jokic and he should win the MVP, but it will probably go to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Jokic led the league in rebounds and assists, something that had never been done before this season. He also finished eighth in points, once again averaging a triple-double. However, that hasn’t been enough to give the Nuggets an advantage in this series.
Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert contests a jumper from Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokić during Game 2 of their 2026 NBA Playoffs first-round series at Ball Arena in Colorado. (Images by Ron Chenoy-Imagn)
In fact, Jokić has looked quite normal in this series. He is averaging 25 points per game, which is lower than his regular season total; He has increased his rebound total and, thanks to a 16-assist game last game, is roughly in line with his season average. The worrying thing is that their performance has been terrible.
He’s shooting just 42.2% from the field and 19.4% from deep in the postseason. Compare that to his regular season, when he averaged 56.9% and 38.0%, respectively. Jokić should not be blamed entirely. The Nuggets defense has been terrible and Aaron Gordon hasn’t been available every game, but a lot should fall on his shoulders as he gets a lot of credit for their success.
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It looked like the Minnesota Timberwolves were going to dominate the series. After four games, the team was comfortably sitting with a 3-1 lead. The team played balanced basketball and great defense with great confidence.
Then, unfortunately, the team suffered the injury bug. Donté DiVincenzo suffered a torn Achilles tendon and Anthony Edwards hyperextended his knee, which will sideline him for weeks. Obviously, Edwards is a significantly bigger loss, but both injuries hurt the team.
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić looks to pass the ball as Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert defends in the second half in Denver on April 1, 2025. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
If the Timberwolves can’t close this out, we probably won’t see Rudy Gobert get the credit he deserves. He’s not having a very good scoring postseason, but that’s not really what he’s there for.
He’s there to make Jokić’s life miserable, and that’s exactly what he’s been doing. We’ll see where the rest of the team goes from here, but he’s been the most reliable of all the Timberwolves players.
Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves is fouled by Justin Holiday of the Denver Nuggets during the second quarter of Game 4 of the second round of the Western Conference Playoffs at the Target Center in Minneapolis on May 12, 2024. (David Berding/Getty Images)
One of the things most sports bettors know is that NBA role players perform best at home. Unfortunately for the Timberwolves, that’s pretty much all that’s left.
Julius Randle has led a team before when he was with the Knicks, but I don’t think he can do it against the Nuggets. There is still a lot of talent and I expect a better effort from the Timberwolves in this game, but I can’t root for them. I don’t think the Nuggets are necessarily going to cover, but I’m leaning more that way.
I think this game is under 224.5 because I think the Timberwolves’ only hope of winning the game and the series depends on their defense and slowing down their offense to limit the Nuggets’ possessions. Give me the next one.
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