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bitcoin has retreated below $81,000 after narrowly missing a test of the closely watched 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently located near $83,300, on Wednesday. The broader crypto market is also trading in the red, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Limited Index losing more than 2% in the last 24 hours, making it the worst performer among major sector indices.
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is widely regarded as a key barometer of long-term market strength. A sustained move above the level would reinforce the narrative that the bear market ended during the early February drop below $63,000 and that a new bull cycle is underway.
However, there is an important historical parallel worth considering. During previous bear market rallies, BTC briefly tested and at times surpassed the 200-day average before resuming its broader downtrend. Notably, in late March 2022, BTC rose above $48,000 and tested the 200-day SMA, only to collapse towards $20,000 in late June.
For now, macroeconomic and market conditions remain favorable. Falling oil prices and gold’s all-time highs, along with continued ETF inflows and improving on-chain dynamics, continue to support the case for further upside. Marex analysts pointed to three catalysts that could determine whether BTC extends higher.
“First, if the spot market continues to buy for strength, not just buying on dips. Second, if the currency supply continues to tighten, reducing immediate selling pressure. Third, if the derivatives market remains constructive without overheating. If that aligns, the path to the mid-80s opens quickly,” they said.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said that BTC’s recent pullback looks more like a pause than a sign of trend exhaustion.
“This pause also coincided with the RSI touching the overbought zone (>70) on the daily periods. It is worrying that the previous three touches of these levels (in August, October and January) were followed by strong selling. It is quite logical that market participants are taking a breather to evaluate the situation and gain strength,” he said in an email.
In traditional markets, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.32%, reversing the peak at the beginning of the month to 4.46%, in a potentially positive development for risk assets.
The Bank of Japan continues to intervene in currency markets to support the anti-risk Japanese yen, while several Asian currencies remain under pressure from the recent surge in oil prices caused by the Iran war. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures continue to hover around all-time highs. Stay alert.
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trend?
BNY, World’s Largest Custodial Bank, Expands Crypto Services in Abu Dhabi (CoinDesk) – BNY, which oversees $59 trillion in assets, is working with Finstreet and the ADI Foundation to build a regulated digital asset infrastructure anchored by the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM).
Oil prices fall below $100 as U.S.-Iran tensions keep traders focused on Strait of Hormuz risks (CNBC): Oil prices fell Thursday in volatile trading amid renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran. International benchmark Brent crude futures for July fell 1.85% to $99.40 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures for June rose 1.85% to $93.21 a barrel.
Iran reviews US proposal as Trump pressures Tehran to reach deal to end war (AP): Iran is reviewing the latest US proposals to end the war, as Trump threatens a new wave of bombing unless a deal is reached that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
France moves aircraft carrier to Red Sea with eye on Hormuz mission (Reuters): France deployed its aircraft carrier strike group to the Red Sea as part of planning a possible mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Today’s sign
The chart shows Bitcoin struggling to establish a firm break above the upper boundary of the ascending channel that has defined its steady recovery from February lows below $63,000.
Just above the upper boundary is the closely watched 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $83,300, a long-term trend indicator that many institutional and systematic traders use to assess whether the broader market trend is bullish or bearish.
Together, the top of the channel and the 200-day SMA form a key resistance zone. A decisive break above both levels would strengthen the argument that Bitcoin’s rally is evolving into a broader uptrend and could open the door to a move towards $80,000.
But repeated failure to clear this area could encourage profit-taking and caution in the short term, especially after bitcoin’s strong rally over the past three months.
