An in-depth investigation into insider trading by Bubblemaps analysts reveals just how accurate the bets were on US attacks on Iran, exposing a trend that experts fear poses immense risks to US national security.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder and CEO of Bubblemaps, expressed deep concern about the national security implications of this alleged new wave of insider trading. He warned that if those who watch market predictions can spot irregular transactions, so can America’s enemies.
“The point here is that they can make war plans accordingly,” Vaiman said. “To put it bluntly, this could potentially expose the lives of many people.”
Vaiman said U.S. adversaries could easily detect insider trading patterns and use that information to plan their own military strategies.
Luck alone cannot explain accuracy.
The warnings come as he and his team discovered 80 bets on Polymarket that were so accurate that “luck alone cannot explain” the figures.
Driven by geopolitical tensions, bets on military plans and outcomes have skyrocketed, reaching more than $1 billion this year alone. The ability to bet on global conflicts creates a whole new category of insider trading.
Onchain data showed that several large high-conviction bets were placed days before the February 28 surprise attacks on Iran, the ouster of its supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire.
According to Bubblemaps, nine accounts connected to Polymarket earned more than $2.4 million by betting almost exclusively on US military operations.
“They simply did not bet on US attacks days before they took place, but on multiple dates afterward to maximize profits,” Vaiman said. They also made smaller losing bets on February 20, probably trying to avoid attention.
A 98% win rate is hard to miss
However, it’s hard to miss executing dozens of bets with a 98% win rate. “During the Iran attacks, civilians were reported to be checking Polymarket to decide whether they should sleep in bunkers or not,” Vaiman added. “So yes, governments and potential enemies are probably watching it closely.”
When asked if he had any indication that those insider traders were connected to the US government, Vaiman responded: “We have no evidence that these are military insiders or even American insiders.” He said “the data is suspect and may indicate that someone has an unfair informational advantage.”
Rep. Mike Levin recently said on
An arrest has been made for insider trading. A US Army Green Beret, Sergeant Major Gannon Ken Van Dyke, won $400,000 in Polymarket bets he made on the raid into Venezuela to oust President Nicolás Maduro in which he participated. Later that month, a study found that only 3% of “informed” traders achieved accuracy, while 97% did not.
Bubblemaps first made their research public on May 18 through a series of X posts, in which they share graphs and images as evidence confirming the statistically impossible timing accuracy of each of the bets.
Two weeks before its findings, Polymarket announced a partnership with Chainalysis to bring Wall Street-level monitoring to its platform, in a clear signal from the prediction markets provider that it is serious about combating insider trading and market manipulation.
Manipulation Potential
According to Vaiman, all of this raises other questions and concerns, such as the possibility of prediction markets being manipulated.
“A government could intentionally place bets to create a false signal and fool adversaries into believing something is about to happen,” he said. “Prediction markets are tools of intelligence and information warfare.”
He also noted that prediction markets not only predict the future, but “can change it.” He mentioned cases in which journalists faced extortion threats from gamblers trying to protect their financial positions.
On the other hand, Vaiman defended Polymarket’s structural design and the transparency it provides, while refusing to blame the platform for compliance failures.
“I don’t want to dive into Polymarket,” Vaiman said. “Realistically, anyone can use a cheap VPN or buy a KYC account. That’s not just a Polymarket problem. It’s a problem that affects the entire Internet.”
Polymarket did not immediately respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment. However, it has responded to insider trading allegations in the past, saying it has strict rules on insider trading, AI-powered surveillance and blockchain forensics to identify suspicious activity and report it to relevant authorities. “Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified,” the platform stated.
