The White House regulatory review office is examining a proposed rule by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on prediction markets, according to a federal filing that could determine how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate in the US.
A RegInfo.gov entry shows that the proposal was received by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on May 26 under Executive Order 12866, triggering a review of what the CFTC describes as a proposed rule on “Prediction Markets.” The presentation does not include the text of the proposed rule.
The move marks one of the clearest signs yet that the CFTC is preparing a broader federal framework for event contracts, following months of legal and political battles over sports and election markets.
Illinois, New Jersey and other states have argued that sports-related event contracts effectively function as online betting markets. Kalshi and the CFTC have responded that the designated contract markets regulated by the federal commodity law fall under the agency’s exclusive authority.
The executive order governs how major federal regulations are vetted before publication, requiring agencies to submit important rules for economic and policy analysis. OIRA, a division within the Office of Management and Budget, oversees the process.
The moment comes days after President Donald Trump publicly endorsed the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets, as CoinDesk previously reported, calling it “critically important” that the agency retains “exclusive authority” over the sector in a Truth Social post.
The proposal follows a previous notice in March of proposed rulemaking in which the CFTC requested public comments on which prediction market contracts can be banned for being “contrary to the public interest,” including contracts tied to elections, gaming and sports.
