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Forty-eight teams. An additional elimination round. And a tie that, in several groups, seems like FIFA was actively trying to cause chaos. Someone is going to go far in this tournament that no one saw coming.
The biggest World Cup in history, of course, will still feature powerhouses and favorites to win. But more competition means more potential for surprise races and new fan-favorite teams.
Here are four notable teams that should be on your radar for this summer’s FIFA World Cup.
Odds of winning the World Cup: +3000
Odds of advancing from the group: -900
Group I opponents: Iraq (June 16), Senegal (June 22), France (June 26)
Norway returns to the World Cup for the first time in 28 years and arrives as one of the fittest teams in Europe. They dominated a World Cup Euro qualifying group that included Italy and also went undefeated during the qualifying process.
Another story is that forward Erling Haaland has spent his entire career watching the World Cup on television; looking at the other Superstars shine on the biggest stage. Haaland scored a staggering 16 goals in qualifying in just eight games played. Simple math shows it’s an average of two goals per game. That just doesn’t happen in this sport. Norway didn’t get in: they swept it, and Haaland did it with the energy of a man who benches small cars for fun and whose hair has its own agent.
Anyway, Group I includes France, Senegal and Iraq. Norway needs to finish second. Beating Senegal and taking something away from France is entirely doable for a team that also includes Martin Ødegaard and Alexander Sørloth floating around Haaland. If you make it to the playoffs, no one will want to play against Norway.
Odds of winning the World Cup: +4000
Odds of advancing from the group: -1000
Group K rivals: Uzbekistan (June 17), Democratic Republic of the Congo (June 23), Portugal (June 27)
Colombia has James Rodríguez, Luis Díaz and a deep attacking group that gives them the ability to beat anyone in the world on any given day. And their qualifying campaign backed it up.
Group K places the team alongside Portugal, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uzbekistan. That is a group that Colombia can absolutely win. Néstor Lorenzo has built a team that no longer depends on a moment of James’ magic to unlock games, thanks to Díaz’s directness, suffocating midfield pressure and genuine defensive solidity make this a complete team. James still pulls the strings, but he no longer has to carry everything.
James will turn 35 in July. He’s spent the last few years going from Rayo to León and Minnesota just to stay alert enough to be here. He has one of the most elegant left feet in the game, capable of performing a magical free kick or a surgically precise through-ball. Despite his age, he can still change the game from a stationary position.
Colombia’s biggest current star is Luis Díaz. After moving from Liverpool to Bayern Munich, he became one of the most feared wingers in Europe. He finished the season with a whopping 26 goals and 19 assists in all competitions. World class numbers. Oh, and he just won the Meisterschale, or as you and I say, the Bundesliga trophy. Luis Díaz will be one of the most important players in this World Cup.
Odds of winning the World Cup: +5000
Odds of advancing from the group: -1000
Group C rivals: Brazil (June 13), Scotland (June 19), Haiti (June 24)
At some point, we should probably stop calling Morocco a dark horse. He reached the semifinals of the World Cup in Qatar. He beat Spain. They beat Portugal. He did it with such a firm structure and such an organized defensive shape that elite coaches spent days trying to figure out how to break it.
That tactical core is still largely intact, with former manager Walid Regragui then leaving in March. The new coach is Mohamed Ouahbi, a former under-23 coach most people had never heard of three months ago. On paper, that should terrify Atlas Lions fans. In practice, the system is so deeply ingrained in this team that the identity does not live on the bench. Lives in the players. Achraf Hakimi knows his role. Youssef En-Nesyri knows his role. This group has been through a World Cup semi-final together. A change of coach does not erase that muscle memory.
Morocco opens Group C against Brazil. Not against Haiti. Not against Scotland. Against Brazil, in which is immediately one of the best games of the group stage. Beat or draw the Seleção in that first match, and Morocco is announced for the entire tournament.
Qatar was unlucky. This is a team that knows exactly how to win. The 2022 race raised the bar. The manager who built that career is no longer here. Now we discover how deep the foundations really are.
Odds of winning the World Cup: +6500
Odds of advancing from the group: -400
Group F rivals: Netherlands (June 14), Tunisia (June 21), Sweden (June 25)
Japan has beaten Germany and Spain in a World Cup. Both phrases used to be considered impossible. Now, it’s just the results of the 2022 tournament in Qatar.
The pressing system that Hajime Moriyasu has built is among the most disciplined in international football. The team’s pressure traps are overwhelming, their transitions are quick, and their shape is almost impossible to disrupt. Kaoru Mitoma and Takefusa Kubo provide the technical quality. The collective provides the method that makes playing them a true nightmare. Players from all their formation compete at the highest level of European national football. Talent is now mixed with a lot of experience.
Group F pits them against the Netherlands, Tunisia and Sweden. It’s a tough group, but Japan could very well advance. And if it does, a team so compact and so tactically brave becomes one of the most uncomfortable draws in the playoffs. Nobody wanted to play against Japan in Qatar. Nothing has changed.
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