- Smartphone shipments could fall 13.9% this year
- That would take them to the lowest levels since 2013.
- The drop is largely due to rising memory prices.
It looks like 2026 will be a bad year for the smartphone industry as shipments are predicted to drop 13.9% year-on-year. That would mean 1.08 billion units shipped, which is the lowest annual volume since 2013.
This is a huge drop and a huge change in direction for the industry, which, before 2026, had experienced nine consecutive quarters of growth.
This 13.9% drop prediction comes from Counterpoint, which is revising its previous forecast of a 12.4% drop. In other words, things are getting even worse than previously predicted.
This downward trend is largely due to the current memory supply crisis, where AI is devouring much of the available RAM, causing sharp price increases. As a result, Counterpoint predicts that “the sub-$150 segment faces effective permanent elimination in some markets.”
With the demise of cheap phones, brands that focus on low-end devices and emerging markets will especially struggle, which partly explains why Samsung and Apple are reportedly the “most isolated” brands, that and the fact that they have integrated supply chains.
Smaller drops and even some increases.
As a result, iPhone shipments are expected to remain broadly stable this year, according to Counterpoint, and grow 5% next year. Meanwhile, Samsung could see a 4% decline this year, much less than the industry as a whole.
The only other brand that Counterpoint highlights as being in good shape is Huawei, which actually managed to grow 1% in the first quarter of the year. This was apparently achieved by keeping their prices static to increase their market share.
By contrast, Xiaomi’s shipments fell more than those of any of the other top five phone brands in the first quarter, with a 19% drop.
However, the big winner in all this appears to be the refurbished market, which is forecast to grow 13% this year as new phones become too expensive for many buyers.
Counterpoint predicts the market won’t recover until 2028, but the picture could be very different by then if some brands fail to weather the storm.
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