bitcoin and the broader crypto market steadied Wednesday from Tuesday’s decline after Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded bitcoin holder, sold a small portion of its stash and spot ETFs extended a record streak of net outflows.
The cryptocurrency’s 14-day RSI has fallen below 30, a textbook oversold reading. The indicator measures the speed and magnitude of price movement over a two-week period.
While a reading below 30 suggests bearish momentum is dominant, analysts often interpret this as a sign that the sell-off has been too rapid and could stall, allowing for a recovery. While it is not guaranteed, it is a position that has been repeated several times.
Oversold readings in early February, November 2025, late February 2025, and August 2024 marked intermediate or major price lows. Therefore, there are hopes that the sell-off will subside soon.
Some analysts are more cautious. “Blood is in the water, trade accordingly,” Monarq Asset Management said in a Telegram chat.
“With the long-awaited regulatory clarity of the CLARITY Act looking less likely by the day (Jamie Dimon is openly hostile, pulling no punches, and using DC’s influence to position himself against it), speculative and value buyers are stepping back and seeking the long-awaited, long-term capitulation move,” Monarq CIO Sam Gaer told CoinDesk.
According to Gaer, $60,000 is back in focus and a break below that level could trigger a sell-off as low as $45,000, as predicted by the theory that the BTC price follows a four-year cycle.
QCP Capital noted an increase in BTC implied volatility, saying the message is less “buy the dip” and more “please lock in the dip before discussing it.”
Overall, weakening institutional and corporate bids and concerns about a Fed rate hike limit the scope for a sustainable recovery, even as the RSI hints at a possible rebound. According to QCP, BTC needs to stay above $67,000 to restore bullish sentiment. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trend?
- Cryptocurrency Bullish Bets Lose $1.6 Billion as ETH, SOL and DOGE Fall 9% (CoinDesk): Cryptocurrency traders hoping the market would catch up to the global stock rally were left in tears Wednesday as a sharp price drop triggered the biggest sell-off event since early February.
- Prediction Market Traders Betting Bitcoin Selloff Still to Come (CoinDesk) – Markets now imply a 66% chance of bitcoin falling below $55,000 and a chance of the coin reaching prices below $50,000 before the end of the year.
- SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target, says Morningstar (CNBC): With SpaceX expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq in just over two weeks, Morningstar analysts say it is “significantly overvalued.”
- Hostilities Erupt in Iran War, Oil Soars as Talks Stalled (Reuters): The flare-up, which sent oil prices up more than 1%, comes as the conflict is stuck in a shaky ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz is virtually closed, more than three months after the initial U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
Today’s sign
The chart shows daily bitcoin price swings in candlestick format with the 14-day Relative Strength Index in the bottom panel.
The RSI has fallen below 30, suggesting oversold conditions. Similar readings have previously marked provisional or temporary price lows.
