say bitcoin The bears having a great time would be an understatement. The cryptocurrency has lost 14% in seven days, falling to levels not seen since the February crash. The broader crypto markets have taken an equally brutal beating, and most analysts say the situation could deteriorate further if BTC falls below the critical $60,000 threshold.
Amid the doom and gloom, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, sees a different picture.
This week’s crypto pain was real, Kendrick said, but he believes “the bottom is almost here.” Your case is based on three pillars:
Strategy (MSTR) repeats its 2022 trade: When Strategy last sold BTC, in December 2022, it bought back more than it sold just two days later. Kendrick expects the company to do the same after selling 32 BTC last week. It could potentially buy up to 100 times that amount, he said in an email, adding that if confirmed next Monday, he would treat it as a tentative sign that the bottom is coming.
ETF holdings are stronger than feared: The 11 U.S.-listed spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $5 billion in the past three weeks. However, if we zoom out, the holdings have barely budged. Cumulative net inflow since its inception in early 2024 is back to $54.2 billion, right where it was at the beginning of this year. “They went up from 682,000 and then back down to now 674,000 (virtually unchanged). This tells me that ETF holdings are structurally stronger than I feared in February,” he said.
Liquidations are mostly underway: exchanges have settled $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin futures bets. That figure is similar to January, and given that BTC is already vastly underperforming stocks this year, the pool of leveraged long positions left to liquidate is smaller than before, he argued.
The takeaway? There are too many “ifs” involved to predict an exact bottom, but according to Kendrick, accumulating here makes more sense than waiting for certainty.
“I think when we look back at the end of 2026, with BTC at $100,000 and ETH at $4,000, we’ll say this was the buy zone we all wanted,” he said. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trend?
Today’s sign
The weekly bitcoin price chart suggests the same thing as Standard Chartered’s Kendrick: the bear market is likely in its final stages and the bottom may be near.
The cryptocurrency is trading near its 200-week simple moving average. This is noteworthy because previous bear markets ended around the same average, as shown by the green arrows on the chart.
So if the past is any guide, then rock bottom may soon be hit. However, keep in mind that past patterns are no guarantee of future performance.
