Blockchain-based prediction markets have recently become the go-to place for investors to bet on the SpaceX IPO, offering a decentralized alternative to traditional pre-IPO markets. Unlike private equity deals that require accreditation and high minimums, these on-chain marketplaces are accessible to retail investors with minimal capital, creating 24/7 price discovery based on IPO odds.
At Wednesday’s level near $157, SPCX implied only a premium of about 16% over the IPO price of $135, down from about 60% when the contract briefly traded near $216 in May. At $183, the implied premium is again close to 36%.
Other parallel markets are now pointing in the same direction. Bloomberg reported on Friday that IG International derivatives implied a valuation of SpaceX of around $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the $1.77 trillion valuation set by the IPO price.
Elsewhere, Polymarket traders put a 70% chance that SpaceX will close its first day of trading above $2 trillion.
The reversal comes as pre-IPO SPCX has shown caution in the market, falling roughly 30% in recent weeks. He suggested that traders still expected SpaceX to trade above the offer price, but not at the explosive premium that book-building implies. And Friday’s bounce now says the discount is closing.
