When American and Iranian negotiators meet in Switzerland on Friday after nearly four months of war, the stakes could not be higher as they face a series of obstacles that could derail efforts to reach a comprehensive peace deal.
While a breakthrough cannot be ruled out, most analysts are skeptical that both sides can forge a final deal within the 60-day deadline set out in a “memorandum of understanding” that President Donald Trump and Iranian leaders approved this week.
That interim pact pushed the most difficult issues into the next phase of negotiations, with no guarantee they will ever be resolved. The following are possible spoilers:
Can they close the nuclear gaps?
The fate of Iran’s nuclear program, which Trump cited as his main reason for going to war, may have the greatest potential to derail the talks. Trump has already touted Iran’s commitment to never develop a nuclear weapon, but that largely reaffirms Tehran’s long-standing promises.
Where negotiations could falter is what to do with Iran’s near-bomb-grade stockpile of uranium. Trump has said he wants it shipped or destroyed. Iran wants neither, although it has indicated a possible willingness to dilute the material.
Another sticking point is Iran’s future uranium enrichment. The United States has at times demanded zero enrichment in Iran. Iran says it will not give up its right to enrich. Sources have said the two sides have previously discussed a possible moratorium of between 5 and 20 years, but a compromise remains elusive.
Also in question is whether Iran will accept the level of international inspection carried out under the nuclear deal that former President Barack Obama reached in 2015 and that Trump abandoned in 2018.
Could the Strait of Hormuz complicate things?
Questions remain about the strait, which Iran effectively blocked, causing a global energy supply shock, after the US-Israel attack on February 28. Under the MoU, the waterway, which normally carries a fifth of the world’s oil, will reopen on Friday, but shippers remain cautious.
The United States says it will be free. Iran, which gained influence with control of the canal that it lacked before the war, insists it will retain a management role.
What about sanctions and frozen assets?
Also standing in the way: Iran wants Trump to quickly lift sanctions and unlock billions in frozen funds, while the United States says the easing will be gradual and subject to Iranian compliance. Under the text of the MoU read by US officials on Wednesday, Iran would immediately receive waivers to sell oil again, a conciliatory gesture that has added to criticism from Iran hawks that Trump is giving too much.
However, Trump may be reluctant to be seen giving money to Iran any time soon. The MoU is already being compared to the deal by Obama, who has long been chided for returning some Iranian funds.
Could Israel be a saboteur?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who helped convince Trump to launch the war, has insisted that Israel is not bound by any US-Iran deal in its fight against Iran-aligned Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Although hostilities there have eased since Trump rebuked Netanyahu this week, further escalation could threaten the talks. Iran says the deal also requires a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Will negotiation styles clash?
The American team (Vice President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner) and their Iranian counterparts may have difficulty reconciling disparate negotiating styles.
Trump is known to demand quick results; Iran prefers prolonged negotiations. This posed a problem in past rounds that ended in failure and could mean a similar outcome this time.
Trump told reporters that this stage of the negotiations would be “easier” than the first. Both parties seek to end the conflict. The president is under increasing pressure at home over high gasoline prices, and Iran has been hit militarily and economically.
However, the American team is expected to lack technical experience and face veteran negotiators with a history of prolonging talks. That means 60 days may be too tight to work out a detailed agreement. The agreement with Obama took about two years to finalize.
Even if an agreement is reached, there could be questions about its implementation. Trump helped broker a ceasefire last year in the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, but the process has since stalled.
Could mistrust be a factor?
Iran is deeply suspicious of Trump, who attacked twice last year amid negotiations.
Whether or not the Iranians are willing to reach a deal could also depend on their supreme leader, Ayatollah Mokhtaba Khamenei, considered more uncompromising than his father, who was martyred along with other members of his family in an attack between the United States and Israel.
The United States will also be wary and watch to see if Iran is misleading them, as Trump advisers say they have experienced before.
If they cannot overcome differences to secure a comprehensive agreement, there is still the possibility of a limited agreement or expanded talks, although the risk of renewed hostilities would also lurk.
Other Ways Talks Could Fail
- If Trump bows to pressure from Iran hawks to resist concessions;
- If the already contradictory interpretations of the MoU create unrealistic expectations;
- If Trump makes the kind of harsh threats he has made during the conflict, that would lead Iran to break off negotiations.
