Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, according to CoinDesk price data, and is still searching for a catalyst strong enough to break out of the range it has held for weeks.
Sales of spot bitcoin ETFs have slowed since the beginning of this month, but new institutional demand has yet to return.
US spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded a sixth consecutive week of net outflows, data shows, with only a few green days. The scale has been reduced, but the absence of any sustained entry shows that institutions remain on the defensive as markets reassess the path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rates.
A greater weight is the rebound of the dollar. After the June meeting, the Fed’s cautious message weakened expectations for near-term rate cuts, lifting the dollar index, which measures the dollar against major currencies, to the 100.6-100.8 zone, keeping Treasury yields high.
As liquidity remains tight, capital favors assets with more stable returns over volatile ones like bitcoin.
The easing of geopolitical tension following the US-Iran deal has improved risk appetite, a short-term support. It hasn’t been strong enough to offset the firmer dollar and cautious flows.
Bitcoin will likely maintain a range of $60,000 to $67,000 in the near term, Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said in emailed comments to CoinDesk. The market is “balanced between supportive and restrictive forces,” he said, with lower ETF selling and better sentiment on one side and an unsupportive Federal Reserve and unconfirmed institutional flows on the other.
A sustainable recovery in the second half would need more time to accumulate, a return of ETF inflows and stronger institutional demand. Until then, the current bounces look more technical than the start of a new uptrend.
