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The NBA Finals wrapped up about a week ago and we’re already looking ahead to next year. That’s mainly because tonight is the NBA Draft. This is one of my favorite days of the sports calendar year. I love the NBA, I love college basketball too, and tonight is where worlds collide. This gives all teams the opportunity to strengthen their rosters and potentially get a piece that will transform their team. It also gives us the opportunity to bet and win some money.
AJ Dybantsa declares for the NBA Draft during an event at Davis K-8 School in Brockton, Massachusetts, on April 23, 2026. (Jonathan Wiggs/The Boston Globe/Getty Images)
The obvious choices
The first three picks, likely in this order, will be AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer. Dybantsa will end up with the Wizards as the No. 1 overall pick. There is no value betting him at -700, and US-based books won’t let you bet him with other selections (or really any bets). However, there could still be some value in betting Peterson at -250 to be the second overall pick. The reason is that if Dybantsa was not in this draft, Peterson would be the first pick in the draft.
Cameron Boozer is a very good player, but there are many questions about how talented he will be as a professional. The rumor is that he will finish with the Grizzlies in third place. His father, Carlos Boozer, used to play for the Jazz, so if anyone falls to second place, it could be him. However, Peterson is considered the better player and the most likely option.
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North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson will also go to the Bulls. Those first four selections are practically defined. If any of these four guys aren’t in the top four, it would be Boozer in my opinion.
Keaton Wagler of the Illinois Fighting Illini dribbles against Isaia Howard of the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first half of the Elite Eight in the 2026 NCAA men’s basketball tournament at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, on March 28, 2026. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
What to bet
I really like Keaton Wagler under 7.5 because of his draft position. There are two teams that have talked a lot about Wagler: one is the fifth-place Clippers. The other is the Nets in sixth place. Most reports say Wagler is a better fit for the Clippers if they keep the pick. If he gets traded, who exactly is the team he trades for the draft? There aren’t three better players in the draft than Wagler. He’s -290 to be selected 7th or lower, so he’s very expensive, but it should be -600 or higher, or maybe the line should be closer to 6.5. To be very clear, I’m not saying it’s a big bet. -290 isn’t exactly a bargain, but there is still significant value in this number.
Aday Mara is now rumored to be heading to Dallas, which holds the No. 9 pick. It makes some sense given that they could use a center and their new coach is Dusty May, who coached Mara in college. Short of him being picked, there really aren’t many teams that see him reaching. I’d lean toward the 9.5 over in case Dallas goes a different direction. It looks like he’ll finish ninth or potentially much later, so there’s no reason to go low unless you think he’ll almost certainly go to Dallas.
No. 15 Yaxel Lendeborg +1000. I’m not sure if he’s still there, but the Bulls are rumored to be very interested in Lendeborg. He adapts quite well to his team. He can shoot, he can drive, he can rebound and he can defend. The problem is that he doesn’t do any of that at an elite level. I can see it falling, but this would be an ideal spot and there’s rumored interest, so it’s a decent risk.
Yaxel Lendeborg of the Michigan Wolverines reacts after being fouled and scoring during the second half of the NCAA men’s basketball Elite Eight tournament against the Tennessee Volunteers at the United Center in Chicago, Ill., on March 29, 2026. Michigan won 95-62. (Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
Darius Acuff is one of the most polarizing players. There is no doubt about his scoring prowess. However, there are a lot of good guards in this draft: Peterson, Acuff, Wagler, Mikel Brown, Brayden Burries. Acuff is one of those who has had a good college coach (John Calipari), known for bringing a lot of talent out of the NBA. His height will be an issue, but Jalen Brunson just won Finals MVP. At -120 for him to be exactly 7th, I don’t think it’s a great bet, but if you see him at over 7.5, I’d take that one. He is rumored to be going to the Kings, and would be a good fit, especially considering the team is without a point guard. However, if one of those guards I mentioned earlier is available (aside from maybe Burries), I think they’ll go through Acuff.
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For tonight, there are not many great opportunities. In terms of value, Wagler at -290 under 7.5 is my favorite (he’s at -450 at Caesars Sportsbook). In terms of opportunities, Lendeborg in 15th place is good money; It also exceeds 13.5 at Caesars. I would also choose Mara with 9.5. Acuff Trades Above 6.5 -115 at Caesars; I would accept that. Shop around, because the numbers are drastically different.
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For more information on sports betting and gambling, follow David on X/Twitter: @futuroprez2024
