FIFA World Cup 2026 title cake: Is Messi’s Argentina or Mbappé’s France the favourite?

The group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is coming to an end and there weren’t many surprises as we approach the knockout stage. But does that mean the favorites entering the tournament should remain favorites heading into the knockout stage?

That’s what Nick Wright believes in “First Things First.” As we almost finished Matchday 3 of the World Cup, Wright dished out percentages on the teams most likely to win the tournament.

Here’s who you have as favorites and who you might consider the clever underdogs.

Less than 1%, but worth a slice

Sweden
Ivory Coast
Senegal
Ghana
Croatia
Egypt
Canada

Wright’s thoughts: “I don’t like the way they looked at all. And then all of a sudden, because of Senegal winning by margin and the other situations in the third-place game. It’s not like they have to draw with New Zealand tonight, they have to win against New Zealand tonight or they’ll go home, I think.”

Wright’s thoughts: “They won their group. They stole their way to Canada. Now they can stay in Vancouver until the round of 16. It was the easiest group, but they looked good.”

Wright’s thoughts: “A team that looked better than 2%, but I hate their draw. I know Ian Darke said [Japan likes having a tough path]but I don’t agree. Now they play against Brazil in the round of 32. So your World Cup is about to end. But they played well.”

Wright’s thoughts: “If we made this cake on Sunday morning, it could be very different. Can they beat Portugal? What can they do to win the group on Saturday? If they don’t, then all of a sudden they’ll probably play Spain in the first round of this tournament and they’ll probably be finished.”

Wright’s thoughts: “The Netherlands, the moment the draw came out, had to think: ‘Well, this is not right. What is our goal? Win our group. Oh, how nice. What if we win our group? Our first game is against Morocco or Brazil. They won their group and their first game is against Morocco. They can definitely win that game. It’s just that it could be a quarter-final game and instead, it’s a round-of-32 game.’

Wright’s thoughts: “Perfect is perfect: six goals scored, zero goals allowed [in group play]. “They can stay in Mexico until potentially the quarterfinals, and that sets up a potentially incredible round of 16 match.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Norway down to 4%. Norway, I’m not angry. I’m disappointed. I’m disappointed that you were undefeated playing as a favorite.” [in France] and you decided you were fine playing for second place. It’s just disappointing. “I like Erling Haaland.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Listen, they’ve been excellent. Their percentage, like the Netherlands, is hampered by the fact that their round of 32 match is brutal, playing against the Netherlands. However, if they get through that match, they’ll face the winner of Canada-South Africa and, suddenly, France. [in the quarterfinals]. This was the semifinals of the last World Cup. “It could be the quarterfinals here.”

Wright’s thoughts: “It’s good because the last time I did this, they had only played one game. Christian Pulisic is back and healthy. They have no yellow card suspensions to worry about. And they are the only team in the tournament whose path to the quarterfinals might not involve playing a top-20 team. [if Belgium loses in the round of 32]”.

Wright’s thoughts: “If they take care of business against Colombia and win that game and the group, they can settle. If they don’t, then I think it wasn’t so much that Game 1 was the aberration and Game 2 was them getting back to form. Rather, Game 1 could be what they are in this tournament and Game 2 was the aberration. But if they win, they’re setting themselves up for an incredible matchup against Argentina in the quarterfinals, potentially.

“If Portugal looks good on Saturday night in Miami against Colombia, then I’ll put them in the top four. I just need to see that the first game was an aberration.”

Wright’s thoughts: “They lost [to Ecuador]but they also had everything insured. So I won’t kill them for that. The percentage has decreased because they are in the same quadrant as France. Assuming France and Germany win their first matches, the round of 16 (which used to be the first knockout round) will be France against Germany.

Wright’s thoughts: “I’m not as optimistic about England as everyone else seems to be. Now, maybe the draw against Ghana was because they won their first game and weren’t worried about it. But here’s the other reason I’m a little worried about England: they’re on a collision course toward the loudest World Cup atmosphere for a visiting team in over 20 years. Round of 16, England in Mexico City against Mexico for the biggest game in Mexican soccer history. It will be the biggest home advantage since Korea He played against Germany in the semi-finals in Seoul in 2002.”

Wright’s thoughts: “They’re probably fine, but [they almost had to play Argentina due to underperforming group play]”.

Wright’s thoughts: “The only thing they have done is win by the largest margin. They had one of the most difficult groups. They won several games by more than three goals. But people don’t like it because they are not as elegant as when they had Ronaldinho doing the Nike commercials.

“They have been unfairly maligned for reasons no one has explained. They won the only group with two teams in the top 10 in the world. They have arguably the best coach in the tournament. They also have a great path forward. They are also likely to play England or Mexico after their emotional game in the quarter-finals. If they get through that, they will play Argentina or Portugal after their tremendously emotional game in the semi-finals. They have had the best defense of the tournament so far and one of the guys who could win the Boot of Gold”.

Wright’s thoughts: “I don’t know how much credit to give France [its win over Norway]given what Norway ended up doing. But, obviously, they turned out great.

“They have the most talent of any team in the tournament.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Argentina is now the favorite. They haven’t allowed a goal. Lionel Messi looks like a man on a mission.

“The vibration meter cannot be higher.