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After a terrible week last week for sports betting in general, but baseball specifically, I found a way to curry favor with the baseball gods this week and won four of the last five plays I made. When I get hot, I want to ride the streak for as long as possible, but you also have to hold your ground and make sure you don’t unleash your bankroll because you never know when it might stop. I don’t think it will stop at this game between the Pirates and Phillies.
We are now more than halfway through the season and the Pittsburgh Pirates are .500 on the season. That’s an accomplishment for this team, but it’s not where they ultimately want to end the year. However, they probably need to set their sights on a wild card spot right now. They are 10.5 games behind the division, which is not insurmountable. However, the Brewers are a very good team and I think other teams ahead of them will have more resources to make moves at the trade deadline.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes pitches during the second inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs in Pittsburgh, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)
The Pirates will need to find a way to get pitchers. Their offense has improved, but only one starter has been truly reliable and he takes the mound tonight. Paul Skenes is on the hill today and although this is the worst ERA of his young career, he is still one of the best pitchers in the league. He is 6-7 on the season with a 3.10 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He is also ninth in strikeouts in the league. The Pirates haven’t had a good start lately; They have lost eight consecutive games since he started. To be fair, he has allowed four or more runs in three of those starts, so it’s not just a lack of run support. The Phillies knocked him out to start this losing streak, as he went five innings and allowed five runs on six hits.
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The Philadelphia Phillies are the perfect example of what can happen if you make moves. They cut ties with their manager and that instantly changed their season. They come into today’s game with a 48-38 record on the year. They were 9-19 on April 26, meaning they went from 10 games under to 10 games over .500. They should be considered one of the favorites to win the World Series, and are currently just 2.5 games behind Atlanta for the division crown. However, there is still plenty of time for both things to be resolved.
July 21, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park. (Eric Hartline/Image Images)
Before we get there, we have one of the reasons why I think the Phillies should be considered a major threat to win the World Series taking the mound today. Zack Wheeler will take the ball against Skenes in what should be the best pitching matchup of the day. Wheeler is having another phenomenal season. He started the season on the disabled list, so he doesn’t qualify to lead anything, but he’s 8-1 on the year with a 2.03 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The Phillies have been great in their starts, winning 10 of their 12 outings. He allowed only six earned runs in five starts in June, and did not allow more than two earned runs in any game.
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Wheeler faced the Pirates in May and dominated. He went seven innings, allowing four hits and no runs. Overall, he has been dominant against the Pirates, allowing them just 24 hits in 128 career at-bats. Marcell Ozuna is a guy you’d want out of the picture today, as he’s just 12-for-64 with 25 strikeouts against Wheeler.
Zack Wheeler #45 of the Philadelphia Phillies watches during a game against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Truist Park on June 28, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Brett Davis/Getty Images)
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The under will be something that almost everyone will want to bet on today. I’m a little surprised the total isn’t lower, but that may be because Skenes didn’t pitch as well as he has in past seasons. I think he will be better in this game than the first time he faced the Phillies. He seems to learn well and make adjustments. I don’t know who will win, but I think we should get under 3.5 runs in five innings at +105. If you want, I also really like Wheeler with under 2.5 earned runs allowed.
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