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The 2026 MLB All-Star Game may have been the last one we’ll see in quite some time, and unfortunately for baseball fans, that’s not hyperbole.
The clock has been ticking for a while, but now, an imminent MLB work stoppage is approaching. The current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, and even this one had to go through numerous steps and obstacles to reach an agreement.
The 2022 season was delayed due to an owners lockout after the previous collective bargaining agreement expired the previous December. However, the sentiment at the time among baseball experts was, if you thought that was bad, wait until 2026.
Major League Baseball Commissioner Robert D. Manfred speaks during the renovation of the 2026 All-Star Legacy Multi-Service Veterans Center at the Multi-Service Veterans Center on Monday, July 13, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Well, 2026 is here and they weren’t kidding.
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In the days of the biggest contracts in sports history, baseball has reached a stalemate in which big-market teams are snapping up players, dollars and, in more recent years, titles, while small-market teams are left stranded more than ever.
The history of each domino effect dates back to before Marvin Miller even held a baseball, but the writing on these contentious talks has been on the wall since negotiations five years ago.
And with baseball potentially seeing a fourth straight year of higher attendance for the first time since 2004 to 2007, the game can’t afford to miss any opportunities that would deter fans from straying from the diamond.
So here’s everything you need to know about the negotiations, what each side wants, and what could happen as the negotiations unfold.
salary cap/floor
One side would say this is all the fault of the Los Angeles Dodgers. They signed Shohei Ohtani to a $700 million contract ahead of the 2024 season, which was the first contract in baseball to top even $500 million, and 98% of that deal is deferred until the contract is up. In total, the Dodgers’ current AAV payroll is over $440 million, a far cry from the Miami Marlins’ $81 million, while tens of millions are deferred.
Starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers warms up before the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on June 3, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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In this world of insane contracts, only a handful of teams are consistently in talks to sign star free agents. The Dodgers and New York Yankees have always been at it, and the New York Mets have recently joined the fray thanks to Steve Cohen, who signed Juan Soto to a $765 million contract. Sometimes there are other teams in the mix, but it’s usually unrealistic to consider them true threats for those types of mega deals.
The other side, however, may blame small-market teams, which have billionaire owners, but their payrolls are only a fraction of that. The league’s five lowest payrolls total just over $500 million, which is less than the Dodgers will spend after luxury tax penalties.
For example, there are extremes on both sides: Two teams don’t even have nine-figure payrolls. The Marlins’ payroll is actually about half of what it used to be in 2017, despite the sale of the team and everyone in the league making more money than ever. The Dodgers have already committed more money to 2030 than 12 teams this season.
The league wants a salary cap and there isn’t much standing in its way.
“I have an ownership group that is more united than any group in my entire time in baseball,” MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said Tuesday before the All-Star Game.
Manfred added that owners are simply “listening to our fans” regarding the salary cap and said it “defies human experience…to think that the lower end of that [payroll] gap has an equal chance of coming out on top.” The owners are even willing to split their local TV rights deal if there is a cap.
“What our fans are telling us in several of our markets, more than half of them, is that there is a lack of competitive balance in the game. And everything we are proposing is aimed at addressing that fan concern,” Manfred said. “I believe that for this game to reach its full potential, we must continue to address the concerns our fans have, particularly concerns that go to the core of who we are, namely competitive balance. We need to ensure that fans in the markets at the start of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win.
“I think we need a system where fans, particularly in smaller markets, can have some hope that players who are signed and developed by their organizations can actually stay there through free agency. And honestly, I think we need a system where there is a more robust free agent market. So if you don’t want to go to New York or Los Angeles, you have a realistic chance of getting a viable free agent contract.”
The players, however, will not give in. A salary cap, which has never existed in the league, is non-negotiable. They want owners to spend a minimum and not have a maximum.
“The salary cap is the ultimate excuse not to compete. It’s the ultimate excuse for an owner to say, ‘Wow, I’d like to make the team better, but you know I can’t,'” MLBPA interim executive director Bruce Meyer said Tuesday. “Salary caps are bad for fans. Salary caps prevent teams from doing the things they think are in their best interest to make the team better.”
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred presents the Allan H. Selling Award for Philanthropic Excellence during the 2022 MLB Winter Meetings at the Manchester Grand Hyatt. (Orlando RamÃrez/Imagn Images)
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“All baseball teams can afford to compete, many choose not to,” Meyer added. “To me, that’s the biggest problem right now.”
Service time/free agency
Players want, and owners are willing to allow them, to become free agents sooner. From now on, players are typically under team control for six years, barring service time manipulation (more on this soon).
The first three years are pre-arbitration, meaning players receive the league minimum each season. Then, in each of the next three seasons, the player and team essentially agree to one-year contracts, but those discussions can become contentious.
Now, teams can turn those six years into almost a full seven. A famous example is Kris Bryant, who in 2015 was sent to the minor leagues for less than two weeks so the Chicago Cubs would have almost an extra full season of control, prompting a lawsuit.
The current collective bargaining agreement attempts to combat the tactic that if a prospect starts the year on the Opening Day roster and wins certain major awards, i.e. Rookie of the Year, that team could receive draft picks. Additionally, if a player finishes in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting, he would get a full season of service time regardless of when he was called up. Pre-arbitration players can also earn more money based on their success during the season.
But some teams are still willing to take the risk in an effort to retain their players longer. The desire of players to become free agents sooner, especially for those who don’t hit free agency until after age 30, will certainly help their case.
MLB owners recently proposed a salary cap for the first time since 1994, and we all know how it went. They have also offered strict contractual limits, limiting the length of deals to six years at 16% of the proposed salary cap for players who re-sign with clubs and five years at 15% for those who sign with different teams. That would be a pretty big change, as there have been 29 contracts in MLB history totaling 10 years or more, and it’s been nearly 60 years since Al Kaline signed the first seven-year contract.
Players, on the other hand, recently offered a 28-man roster instead of the usual 26 for the first 15 days of the regular season to continue to avoid service time manipulation.
If long-standing speculation is correct, owners will likely lock out players if a deal is not reached. As long as players reject a salary cap, the start of next season, at the very least, is in jeopardy.
Manfred, however, remains “optimistic.”
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred watches before game one of the National League Wild Card Series between the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, on September 30, 2025. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
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“I really believe that if people get involved in the process, they will find ways to get through things,” he said.
Baseball hasn’t lost a game since 1995, as the season had to be shortened by 18 games due to the players’ strike that cost the 1994 postseason. But if neither side is willing to budge on essentially its top priority, unfortunate history could be made at a time when baseball is once again booming.
