The cryptocurrency market is falling, with bitcoin losing 1% since midnight UTC, while ether (ETH) is holding up slightly better, losing 0.65% even as some other risk assets, such as US stock index futures, advance.
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures posted gains of 0.35% and 0.20%, respectively, widening the divergence between cryptocurrencies and stocks that has defined much of this year.
Gold is little changed, holding above $4,000, and the dollar index (DXY) barely moved, leaving cryptocurrencies without a clear macro narrative to fall back on.
CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index sits at 34, deep in “fear” territory, while the average Relative Strength Index (RSI) among cryptocurrency pairs has fallen to 44.07, returning to the oversold conditions that established July’s relief rally.
Derivatives positioning
- Conviction agitation: Crypto futures are characterized by churning rather than establishing new positions. While trading volume increased by 81% to $127 billion in the last 24 hours, open interest (OI) remained stable at approximately $111 billion.
- Take advantage of demand stagnations: bitcoin OI futures growth stalled near 750,000 BTC, failing to gain traction despite a recent swing that took the price above $64,000. This stagnation indicates that demand for leverage remains low and is a clear sign that investors are not comfortable increasing their risk exposure. A similar cautionary pattern is evident in ether (ETH) and XRP futures.
- Solana capital outflow: Solana (SOL) is seeing a clear contraction trend, with OI futures falling to 62 million tokens, the fewest since early May. This represents a significant drop from the June 24 high of over 76 million, indicating significant position liquidation and capital outflows from the SOL market.
- Bitcoin Cash Outlier: stands out as today’s exception. The OI in BCH futures has increased by 20% to 1.73 million tokens, equaling the record set on June 21. This accumulation increases the likelihood of volatile price action in the future, particularly as the token has fallen 3% to $213 in the last 24 hours.
- Bear Market Delta: Generally speaking, the bears seem to be driving the price action in most top-tier tokens. This is reflected in negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) readings for most major coins, including bitcoin and ether. In particular, the privacy-focused ZEC has recorded the most negative CVD on the market.
- Volatility Fear Indicator Alert: Traders should remain alert to potential market turbulence. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) is approaching the 36% mark. This level has served as a floor in recent years; Previous instances of the index reaching this threshold have often preceded major volatility booms and sharp declines in the price of Bitcoin.
- Options Sentiment Divergence: On the Deribit options exchange, persistent bearish caution is keeping BTC and ETH selling prices higher than buying prices. However, the 24-hour volume figures reveal a tactical bias towards the upside: Bitcoin’s $70,000 call has become the most traded contract, while the $2,450 call leads the ether leaderboard.
symbolic talk
- Zcash (ZEC) reversed course on Monday after its recent run, falling 3.68% to $527. The pullback follows a period of outperformance and may reflect profit-taking.
- AI tokens are among the big losers, with FET falling 2.94% and TAO losing 2.58%, giving back some of the gains recorded last week as the sector struggles to maintain momentum.
- is the most prominent driver of the last 24 hours, with an increase of 20% after a wave of noise on social networks, led by crypto influencer Ansem, who published a bullish analysis alluding to the company earning between 30 and 40 million dollars a month in a bear market.
- Jupiter (JUP) also advanced, rising 1.02% to $0.197 along with a rebound in trading volume, continuing the token’s gradual rehabilitation after weeks of heavy losses.
- Lighter (LIT) fell another 1.83%, extending a pullback from its all-time highs, as profit-taking continues to weigh on a token that rose more than 200% between May and early July.
- CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Seasonal Indicator is at 55/100, the highest reading in months, although the Fear and Greed score of 34 suggests the market remains cautious despite pockets of altcoin strength.
