- Satellite images independently confirm that a Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber was destroyed in the Ukrainian SBU drone attack on the Engels-2 airbase
- The Tu-95 is essentially an impossible-to-replace Cold War-era asset, with approximately only 60 in service and at least 10 photographically confirmed losses since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022.
- The loss is damning for the Russian military, which has deployed new hardened shelters and painted decoy bombers in a bid to fool drone operators who successfully destroyed the aircraft from a range of 800 km.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the country’s Security Service had recently destroyed a Tu-95 strategic bomber at the Russian Engels-2 air base, but the missing piece was the lack of independent evidence confirming the attack.
As the Ukrainian side claims an 800-kilometer-deep attack on one of Russia’s most important airfields, many often call for proof in a war in which both sides exaggerate deaths and try to hide losses to promote their own narratives.
This time, however, the receipts came in the form of satellite images published by open source intelligence group AviVector and corroborated by Planet Labs satellite images obtained by Schemes, the research project of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty, showing a destroyed TU-95MS on the runway at Engels-2 air base.
A costly loss for Russia and why it matters
The Tu-95 is a machine from another era: a swept-wing turboprop that first flew in 1952, powered by NK-12 engines that remain the most powerful turboprops ever built and make it one of the loudest aircraft in the sky.
The Tu-95MS variant, adapted from the Tu-142 maritime patrol airframe, is the main Russian carrier of the Kh-101 cruise missiles that have hit Ukrainian cities during the war, carrying up to six missiles on an internal rotary launcher, and the modernized Tu-95MSM adds new engines, avionics and pylons for up to eight externally mounted Kh-101 or nuclear-tipped Kh-102.
While the Kh-102s have never been used in war, given their unconventional capabilities, the fact that the Tu-95MS is essentially capable of carrying out nuclear war from an aerial position highlights how central it is to Russia’s overall deterrence, even as it can no longer replace its losses: the production infrastructure that created them is gone, while the promised replacement, the PAK DA stealth bomber program, only exists on paper for now.
The move is important in a war that is both psychological and asymmetrical between the two enemies: it shows that Ukraine can strike deep into Russian territory and target even its most remote airfields. Furthermore, the Tu-95MS is one of the most important workhorses of Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine, often used to launch missiles against the latter’s cities and positions alike; the attack essentially neutralizes Russian capabilities, with only ~60 of them currently operational.
The Ukrainians wasted no time highlighting both the financial aspect of the coup and its psychological impact, stating on Telegram (translated):
“The SBU systematically destroys important elements of the Russian military machine. Each strategic bomber liquidated means dozens of missiles not launched on Ukrainian cities, saved Ukrainian lives and tens of millions of dollars in irreparable losses for the enemy. Russian strategic aviation can no longer feel safe even at its most remote military airfields.”
On the other hand, the destruction of a single bomber does not change the war; Russia launched salvos of cruise missiles before July 16 and will likely launch them afterward despite the small loss in capability. It will also continue to reinforce its air defenses and hangars while painting decoys to fool drone operators who manage to get through, even as its jammers become increasingly sophisticated.
But a fleet limited by a 34-year production shutdown, which has already lost double digits thanks to successful attacks like Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb, losing airframes at a base it has spent months fortifying, is a fleet whose remaining missions carry a quietly rising price. Ukraine also cannot build Tu-95. The difference is that a defensive Ukraine that promotes drones does not need to do so.
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