Bryce Miller vs. MacKenzie Gore with Rangers favored and above 7.5

We are in a somewhat boring time for sports. We don’t have a lot of the major sports right now. The NBA has taken a break from the Summer League (which, by the way, set viewership records). NFL minicamps have not officially started. The NHL has free agency, but most of the biggest names are signed. That leaves us with just baseball, which is fine with me; I love betting on it. Fortunately, today we also have great games, like this one between the Mariners and the Rangers.

The Seattle Mariners are really frustrating because, on paper, they look like a team that should be sweeping not only their division, but also among the best in the American League. Unfortunately, that is not the case. The Mariners are 51-52 this season and have been pretty poor on the road with a 21-29 record. I’m still waiting for this team to turn it on, but they’re just average. Their offense struggles with regularity. The pitching staff is still dominant, but it is not getting the support it needs.

Today the Mariners get possibly the best pitcher in their rotation this season, Bryce Miller, to pitch. Miller is 4-4 this year with a 2.27 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The problem for Seattle is that the year didn’t start until May. His monthly ERA also increased each month from 1.71 in May to 2.19 in June, and now to 3.06 in July. To be clear, anyone would take those numbers, but it is something that needs to be monitored. He has also been substantially worse away from home than at home. He has allowed only 16 earned runs this year, but 13 of them have come on the road.

The Texas Rangers actually lead the American League West right now. It’s not a big surprise after they reinvested in their rotation during the offseason. The team doesn’t have elite hitting, but they still have some very powerful bats in the lineup. Their batting average is one of the best in the league at .247, but they aren’t scoring many runs with only 427 on the season. And that pitching staff that tried to improve is pitching to a 4.32 ERA.

Texas Rangers starter MacKenzie Gore pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, on May 7, 2026. (Brad Penner/Image Images)

Tonight, their biggest offseason addition, MacKenzie Gore, is toeing the line. Gore has been good for the Rangers with a 6-8 record, 4.80 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. I think your WHIP is something that may indicate that it may reduce your effectiveness. He’s also been better at home, with a 3.44 ERA. July has been a bit of a rough month for him, with 18 earned runs allowed already, including three of four starts with at least five earned runs allowed. They have faced Seattle twice this season at home; he went five innings, striking out nine batters and allowing one hit in the scoreless appearance.

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I don’t love the Mariners in this situation. I know they have the best hitter, but this is a Jekyll and Hyde situation with Miller. On the road it’s not as good as at home. Gore hasn’t been elite, but he’s been much better and more reliable at home than on the road. Seattle has also struggled overall on the road.

Texas Rangers’ Ezequiel Durán runs home to score on an error by Cleveland Guardians left fielder Cooper Ingle in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Cleveland, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

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For those reasons, I’m taking the Rangers tonight. Gore is a good pitcher and I think he can get a win to open this series. Texas is 4-2 against the Mariners this season and has already swept them once at home this season. I just think it’s a bad situation and place for the Mariners. I also think the total is over 7.5 tonight.

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