Tarik Skubal trade deadline start boosts Orioles vs. Tigers bass


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The deadline for changes is looming, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to take our foot off the gas. I mentioned that it’s smart to reduce your unit size a bit on some of the baseball bets over the next few weeks, and I stand by that. You never know who will be part of a successful trade and you don’t want your money invested in something that isn’t as predictable. There isn’t a bigger name available than the guy who will start today when the Orioles take on the Tigers.

The Baltimore Orioles’ season hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. They added Pete Alonso, who has been a rewarding free agent, but the team is still hitting just .237 on the season. The pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. In the ultra-competitive American League East, there simply isn’t much room for error. They enter today’s contest with a 52-56 record, which isn’t terrible, but probably puts them in the seller’s conversation more than the buyer’s room.

June 9, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, United States; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Trevor Rogers (28) delivers during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. (Images by James A. Pittman-Imagn)

There is a lot of talent on the Orioles, but you have to wonder how they fit in not only for the rest of this year, but also for next year. They need help in the rotation, but their bullpen, a strength for so long, has actually been very good over the last few months. Maybe that’s something to hang your hat on. Trevor Rogers takes the hill today with a 6-7 record, a 4.17 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP. It was good, but nothing special. He’s been better on the road than at home, with a 3.72 ERA on the road, and he’s been excellent the last two months with just 11 earned runs allowed in 55 innings. Tigers hitters are hitting .270 against him in 37 at-bats.

The Detroit Tigers are at an important crossroads and this season did not go as expected either. They will have a lot of people calling about a variety of their players. Their offense seems to have improved from last year and their pitching looks more or less the same, but they have not progressed from the slump they had to end last season. They are six games under .500 so far this year and haven’t played very well on the road this year.

Tarik Skubal (29) of the Detroit Tigers pitches against the A’s during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, July 7, 2026, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson) (Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

As mentioned, no one will attract more attention than the man taking the mound today for Detroit, Tarik Skubal. If you follow baseball, you know that he is in the prime of his career, about to become a free agent, and has won the last two Cy Young Awards. His numbers remain solid this year despite missing some time due to injury. He is 7-5 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He has been worse at home than on the road with a 3.46 ERA at home. He’s been his typical dominant self in July with a 1.48 ERA this month.

One has to wonder if this will be the last start Skubal will make for the Tigers. If they don’t trade him, they will let him walk for nothing, since they are probably very far apart in terms of contract. Starters like this don’t come around often, and the return has to make it worth it even if the Tigers still believe they can make the postseason without him this year.

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Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers watches between pitches during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia, on April 29, 2026. (Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

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For today’s game the bet is to play less. There’s not much room for error here since it’s at 7.5, but I could see Rogers and Skubal posting seven scoreless innings each. Rogers has been locked in lately and Skubal is, well, the best pitcher in baseball. I also think the Orioles bullpen will help keep the score down. This game is much more likely to be a 2-1 game than seeing eight runs.

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