bitcoin is trading with a positive bias above the $75,000 level, which CoinDesk recently highlighted as a critical threshold for bulls to remain in control.
Still, some observers urge caution and point out that prices should remain above that level until Wednesday, when the ceasefire between the United States and Iran will end.
“The ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday afternoon Washington time, and the market has to price two paths, extension and de-escalation versus further escalation and oil stress. That’s why even with strong BTC, the tape can still open quickly. It’s a headline risk with a stopwatch,” Marex analysts said in an email to CoinDesk.
An escalation could push oil prices well above the March high of $119, potentially sending Asian and global stock markets into a tailspin. The question remains whether bitcoin, which remained relatively stable around $70,000 during the March conflict, will remain resilient or come under pressure along with the broader market.
At the time of writing, no Iranian delegation had left for the talks in Pakistan. On Monday, President Donald Trump warned of a major escalation of the conflict if the ceasefire ends without an agreement.
Also on analysts’ radar is Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chairman, scheduled for Tuesday. Warsh has a reputation as an “inflation hawk” who opposed interest rate cuts and quantitative easing after the 2008 crisis.
So what you say during the session could move the markets. “His comments could act as a near-term catalyst, particularly if they reinforce expectations for policy easing,” digital asset trading firm QCP Capital said in a note.
Speaking of the broader market, major cryptocurrencies such as ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) have risen less than 2% in the last 24 hours, underperforming bitcoin. Smaller tokens like XLM and TON are up more than 5% each. The CoinDesk Memecoin index is up more than 3%.
Notably, the DeFi Select Index added 2%, which is surprising given the industry-wide fallout from the KelpDAO hack over the weekend. This caused the attacker to drain rsETH, a liquid recovery token widely used as collateral on various DeFi platforms.
Decentralized lender Aave has taken the biggest hit, with the total value of cryptoassets locked on its platform falling to $16 billion, almost $10 billion less than before the hack.
Aave’s native token, AAVE, has declined 18% to $93 since the hack. At the same time, open interest in futures linked to the token reached a record high of 3.59 million tokens. The increased demand for leveraged bets points to the possibility of greater volatility in the future. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trend?
Today’s sign
The chart shows the daily price swings of XRP in candlestick format. The white line represents the average price for 100 days and the yellow line represents the extended bear market.
XRP remains below both the average and the trend line even as market leaders bitcoin and ether (ETH) have surpassed these levels on their respective price charts.
Until the price reclaims both the 100-day average and the downtrend line, momentum will remain comparatively weak against BTC and ETH, which have already established firmer bullish structures.
