bitcoin an important indicator of risk sentiment, remains a model of stability ahead of President Donald Trump’s arrival in Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
The largest cryptocurrency recently traded 0.5% higher as of midnight UTC at $80,900, in line with the gain of the CoinDesk 5 (CD5) index. All five index members advanced. The broader CoinDesk 20 index (CD20) rose 1.3%, while the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) was little changed, indicating a particular focus on larger tokens.
Talks between Trump and Xi are likely to cover tariffs, rare earth supply chains and the Middle East. Any positive outcome, even a symbolic one on paper, could improve overall market sentiment and support risk assets.
Ether (ETH) added 1.3% from midnight to $2,300 after the Ethereum Foundation released “Clear Signing,” a new standard designed to prevent users from unknowingly approving malicious crypto transactions.
Among altcoins, the Injective blockchain’s INJ token rose as much as 24%, the most since February 19, along with 5% gains in Polkadot’s DOT and the TRUMP memecoin.
Derivatives positioning
- BNB futures open interest (OI) rose to 6.15 million tokens, an increase of more than 5% in 24 hours and the highest since April 3. The measure aims at new capital inflows.
- ZEC’s OI growth is the largest among major cryptocurrencies. Its 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) is also positive and the highest among large companies.
- This is also a sign that there is new money flowing into the market, as traders buy through market orders rather than passive limit orders, indicating strong bullish sentiment.
- Still, the BNB market does not seem overheated. Funding rates remain below 10% annualized, a sign of healthy bullish conditions without excessive leverage buildup. Its market capitalization has risen to $92.2 billion, the highest since March 18, reflecting renewed investor interest.
- The OI on DOGE has risen 5.75% to 15.38 billion tokens, and its price chart points to a bullish crossover of the widely followed 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages. The token traded 4% higher at 11 cents at the time of writing. The other key metrics show a similar bullish setup as BNB, suggesting improving speculative demand.
- Another standout is ether (ETH), the second largest token by market value. OI in ether futures surpassed 15 million ETH, approaching the record of 15.30 million from last July.
- Rising demand for leverage, coupled with the relentless tightening of Bollinger Bands, suggests room for a volatility boom.
- The OI in bitcoin has remained virtually unchanged near 740,000 BTC in the last 24 hours, indicating a relatively stable positioning in bitcoin compared to altcoins.
- Generally speaking, most tokens except BNB, That indicates lingering caution behind the overall market strength.
- While macroeconomic risks are mounting in the form of high inflation and tightening bond yields across the advanced world, the market remains calm. This is evident by the continued decline in the 30-day implied volatility indices of bitcoin and ether. Ether’s EVIV index hit new year-to-date lows below 55%, while BVIV remains near 40%, levels last seen in late January.
- The moderate volatility environment suggests that traders are not yet pricing in major near-term turmoil.
- In the Deribit options market, the highest-strike call options continue to dominate the volume rankings. The calls represent a bullish bet on the underlying BTC.
- Regarding block flows, put spreads and spreads emerged as preferred strategies over the past 24 hours, indicating that traders are positioning for both downside protection and potential volatility expansion.
symbolic talk
- DeFi United initiative appears to be regaining trust in the decentralized financial ecosystem, with Aave tokens Arbitrum (ARB) and Lido (LDO) rallied over the past week.
- AAVE rose 3%, ARB gained 16% and LDO added 11% in seven days. ARB’s move stands out after the Kelp DAO exploit, which affected Arbitrum lending markets and left wrapped ether stranded on chains.
- The April 18 attack released unbacked rsETH through Kelp’s LayerZero OFT bridge. Aave’s incident report attributed the route to a spoofed LayerZero packet and a single DVN configuration, while LayerZero linked the attack to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. It triggered a widespread recovery effort.
- Phase 1 of that recovery is now complete. The attacker’s rsETH on Arbitrum was burned, eliminating unsupported supply, and Aave V3 positions linked to the exploiter were forcibly liquidated.
- The 117,132 rsETH, worth approximately $278 million, will be progressively recharged to the LayerZero bridge adapter over the next two weeks. Withdrawals are expected to resume within 24 hours of the first tranche.
- A separate legal process is underway over 30,765 ETH, approximately $71 million, frozen by the Arbitrum Security Council. A US federal court authorized an Arbitrum governance vote to move the funds to a wallet controlled by Aave while keeping the recovered ETH under judicial restrictions.
