Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching the lower end of their recent ranges, major markets firm Wintermute’s OTC trading desk said in a Wednesday note shared with CoinDesk, with both assets caught between last week’s hawkish Fed and Iran headlines.
Options markets are pricing in a relatively tight move for the next 24 hours. The one-day variation of Wintermute, a measure of the expected swing derived from the options price, put bitcoin in a range of $61,242 to $63,563 and ether between $1,606 and $1,694, implying moves of around 1.9% and 2.7% respectively.
The backdrop is deteriorating. Token correlations are rising, meaning assets are moving together rather than based on their own fundamentals, while liquidity is shrinking in the summer months without any new institutional supply visible in ETF flows.
Wintermute pointed to $59,000 as the level to watch, calling it the bottom of the bear market and key support if the current pressure continues.
Three catalysts shape the rest of the week: the US-Iran peace deal and if it holds, Thursday’s PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred measure of price growth, and the expiration of quarterly options at the end of the month, which can amplify moves as traders advance or close out large positions.
