bitcoin it simply gave options desks the breakout they were positioning for.
The largest cryptocurrency surpassed $81,000 in Asian time on Tuesday, its highest level since late January, up from $79,000 at the end of US trading hours on Monday and up 5.3% for the week.
Other large companies traded mixed. Ether held at $2,379, down 0.1% on the day but up 4.0% on the week. XRP fell 0.9% to $1.40. Solana fell 0.9% to $84.84. BNB stood at $626. Dogecoin fell 1.0% to $0.1117 following last week’s rise, although it remains the top performer on the seven-day chart at 12.4% as futures open interest remains at a year-high.
The move came even though Brent crude fell to just $113 a barrel after rising 5.8% on Monday on Iran’s disputed missile claim, with WTI near $104.
In reality, the macro picture has not improved, even as the ongoing events between the United States and Iran appear to be losing control over Bitcoin.
The U.S. destroyers Truxtun and Mason transited the Strait of Hormuz overnight, escorting two U.S.-flagged vessels under what U.S. Central Command described as “coordinated threats.” A VTTI oil terminal in Fujairah was hit in an airstrike. President Donald Trump told the Salem News Channel that the war could last another two or three weeks, meaning a previously announced four-week ceasefire is wearing thin.
Options markets are showing a flurry of action with bets on higher prices in the coming days, Nomura’s market-making arm Laser Digital noted in a note shared with CoinDesk on Tuesday.
Bitcoin volatility has been quiet for most of the past week. Traders weren’t buying much in terms of option protection and the price wasn’t moving fast enough to justify it. When the desks paid for protection, they paid more for puts (bets on the price to fall) than for calls (bets on it to rise)—the standard playbook in a market that’s more worried about a decline than excited about a rally.
But behind that, there has been a quiet demand for cheap bullish bets, structured through what traders call call ratio strategies. Trading involves buying call options that pay off if Bitcoin rallies a little and funding them by selling other call options that only pay off if Bitcoin rallies a lot. It costs almost nothing to set up up front and you benefit if bitcoin rises further without breaking above the upper level.
“If the spot price experiences a decisive break above $80,000, BTC’s currently negative risk reversal is expected to move into positive territory,” the note said.
A risk reversal is the difference in implied volatility between equally out-of-the-money calls and puts. When negative, the market values fear of a decline more than greed for a rebound.
A turn toward the positive would be the first sign that options markets have actually moved from cautious to constructive.
All major central banks held rates last week, which Laser Digital says narrows the spread of rates in the right tail and keeps US financial conditions in their current range. Strategy reports earnings on Tuesday and US nonfarm payrolls fall on Friday. Both can move bitcoins if the surprise is big enough.
