Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October without reaching the upper red bands of the Rainbow Chart. Now, with BTC near $62,500, the price has fallen below the chart floor.
The divergence comes as other widely followed bitcoin valuation models have also struggled. The Stock-to-Flow model, which links bitcoin’s price to its scheduled supply reductions, projected significantly higher prices after the 2024 halving than bitcoin ultimately achieved.
Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining, agreed that the lower band does not indicate a permanent collapse.
Bitcoin dead zone
“The ‘Bitcoin is dead’ zone does not mean that Bitcoin is actually dead,” Zalan told CoinDesk. “Historically, it has often marked periods of extreme fear and undervaluation, which were then followed by rallies. It signals sentiment rather than certainty.”
Zalan said the graph is still useful, but “less accurate than before.”
“The 2025 cycle showed that BTC does not have to follow the old patterns exactly,” Zalan said. “ETFs, institutions and the changing market structure have altered the game.”
Bitcoin is trading close to its April 2024 halving price, a development that runs counter to expectations for the current four-year cycle.
Levin said the chart confirms what “cycle data has been showing us: The exponential growth assumptions included in this chart were calibrated for an illiquid retail-driven asset, not a $1.25 trillion market with ETF flows and institutional balance sheets setting the marginal price.”
