bitcoin is pushing against $75,000, a price it has repeatedly failed to break since early February, putting the broader crypto market under surveillance after more than two months of range-bound trading.
Traders have been building short positions around that level, betting on another rejection. Data from CoinGlass shows that roughly $200 million in shorts would be liquidated if BTC breaks above $75,500, a dynamic that could accelerate any bullish move.
At the same time, macroeconomic sentiment is improving. U.S. stocks rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 index posting its highest close since before the conflict with Iran escalated, after President Donald Trump signaled his willingness to reach a deal with Tehran.
Precious metals also returned on Tuesday: silver rose 2.9% since midnight UTC, while gold added 0.7% to $4,775 an ounce.
Derivatives positioning
- Notional open interest (OI) in cryptocurrency futures rose to $126 billion, the most since January 31, according to Coinglass.
- Ether OI rose to 14.99 million ETH ($35.79 billion), the highest since July. The growth is likely due to increased demand for bullish bets because the 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) is positive, indicating that aggressive buying is dominating the flow. Positive financing rates also suggest the same.
- Bitcoin OI has reached an all-time high of 767,000 BTC, while positive CVD and funding rates also indicate bullish positioning.
- ZEC, SOL, and HYPE are other notable coins showing bullish patterns.
- It is worth noting that while funding rates are positive for most tokens, they are not unusually high. This is a sweet spot for a bullish move and indicates that the market is not overheated.
- However, the 30-day implied volatility (IV) indices for bitcoin and ether, BVIV and EVIV, have stopped declining over the past two days. Until recently, the rally in spot prices was accompanied by a fall in IV, a dynamic that has now changed, with IV stabilizing even as prices continue to rise. If this divergence persists or widens, it could raise questions about the sustainability of price increases.
- Deribit data shows that dealers’ gamma positioning is deeply negative at $75,000. So if BTC breaks this level, dealers could buy into the rising market to cover their exposure to neutral. This could accelerate the uptrend. Similarly, if prices fall below $75,000, dealers could sell into a falling market, accelerating the decline.
- Bitcoin put options remain more expensive than call options across all time frames, risk reversals show. In the case of ether, sentiment has turned bullish in favor of call options with short-term expirations. The long segment continues to trend towards puts.
symbolic talk
- The altcoin market is taking a backseat during Tuesday’s breakout attempt, with the bitcoin-dominated CoinDesk 5 (CD5) and CoinDesk 20 (CD20) indices posting gains of 0.5% to 0.7% since midnight, outperforming altcoin-weighted benchmarks.
- Ether (ETH) is up 0.7% since midnight, outperforming majors XRP and SOL, which are down 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. ADA lost 2.2% overnight.
- Memecoins BONK, FLOKI and WIF have cooled after a sector-wide rally on Monday, each losing between 2.4% and 3% since midnight as traders focus on the possible breakout of bitcoin.
- Ethena (ENA) gained 5.6% in the last 24 hours, before losing 4% during Asian and European hours.
- The altcoin market is in a delicate position. If bitcoin exceeds $75,000 and consolidates, fresh capital will rotate toward more speculative bets. For now the focus is on BTC.
