The Iran war premium is back and cryptocurrencies are paying for it.
Bitcoin fell 2.1% in the last 24 hours to $75,633 in Asian hours on Thursday, down 3% for the week, while Brent crude jumped 7.1% to $126.41 a barrel (the highest intraday level in four years) on an Axios report that President Donald Trump will receive a briefing on new military options against Iran.
The report adds that US Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles in the Middle East, which would mark the first time US forces have used such weapons in combat. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war began in late February, choking off flows of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products.
This activity leads to a war premium, which refers to the portion of an asset’s price driven by conflict risk rather than supply and demand fundamentals. Brent has seen sharp declines all year, with prices up more than 100% so far this year.
The global benchmark is now on a nine-day winning streak, the longest since May 2022, and is up more than 100% so far this year.
Ether fell 3.4% to $2,244 and is down 4.4% on the week. XRP fell 2.1% to $1.37, down 3.7% in seven days. Solana lost 2.6% to $82.62. BNB lost 1.9% to $615. The only green print in the top 10 outside of stablecoins is dogecoin, up 3.8% on the day and 10.1% on the week to $0.10.
Risk assets are returning gains across the board. Nasdaq 100 futures erased an earlier 1.1% rally driven by strong gains from Alphabet and Amazon, the MSCI Asia Pacific stock index fell 1.4% and European stocks were set to fall 1% at the open.
The dollar gained and bonds fell as rising oil prices and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve undermined demand for fixed income. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds remained near the highest since July, and Japan’s 10-year bonds hit the highest level since 1997, according to Bloomberg.
Bitcoin’s resilience during the early stages of the war is being tested. The asset has maintained a narrow band between $74,000 and $78,000 through April, even as oil rose from $98 to $126 and the conflict entered its third month. Each escalating headline has produced a steeper decline and the cumulative damage is starting to show.
BTC is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Fernando Lillo, director of the Zoomex exchange, said in a note that any break above $80,000 requires the war premium to be reduced.
“Bitcoin is trying to break the key $80,000 level, which would require a resolution of the Middle East conflict and, as a result, a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel,” he said. “One is impossible without the other, and the US administration’s plans for a prolonged naval blockade against Iran are becoming a real obstacle.”
Lillo pointed to a possible scenario in which the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days and frames it as a response to “positive steps by Iran” to organize an aid rally.
“A possible lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and advance towards $85,000.”
