The amount of bitcoins The losing supply reached a key bear market threshold, surpassing 10 million BTC, more than half of the total in circulation.
According to data from Glassnode, at a one-hour resolution, the number peaked at around 10.5 million BTC while the price fell to as low as $61,300 on Thursday. The total circulating supply is approximately 20 million BTC, so more than half of all coins are currently held at unrealized losses.
At the same time, the supply with profits has decreased to around 9.8 million BTC. This is the first time during the current market cycle that the amount of bitcoins held at a loss exceeds the amount held at a profit.
Historically, this transition has occurred only during deep bear market conditions and has often coincided with significant market lows.
The previous cycles provide some context.
During the 2015 bear market, the losing bid and winning bid remained near equilibrium for almost a year before the market recovered. In 2019, the period lasted approximately six months. The Covid-driven capitulation in March 2020 was shorter, lasting about a month, and in the 2022 bear market this condition persisted for about six months.
The bottom line is that while this signal has historically aligned with bear market lows, the length of these periods has varied significantly, making it difficult to estimate how long bitcoin could remain at depressed levels.
Adding to the significance of the recent decline, bitcoin hit its 200-week moving average of around $61,300. The measure is a long-term trend indicator that calculates the average price of bitcoin over the previous 200 weeks. It has historically acted as an important support level during each bear market cycle.
If bitcoin falls below the psychologically important level of $60,000, the next important support zone is around $54,000, which corresponds to the realized price. The realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all bitcoins in circulation based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. Bitcoin has traded below its realized price during every major bear market.
