Bitcoin rose to $74,935 in Asian time on Thursday, up 0.7% over 24 hours and 5.4% on the week, while US stocks closed at record highs following reports that the US and Iran had reached an agreement “in principle” to extend negotiations beyond next week’s April 7 ceasefire expiration.
The S&P 500 finished up 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4%, both all-time highs, capping a two-week rally from late March lows.
Ether led the major tokens, rising 8.1% on the week to $2,360, extending the outperformance against bitcoin that emerged earlier this week. XRP gained 3.6% to $1.41, dogecoin rose 4.8% to $0.098 and solana added 2.2% to $85.
The stock rally is ahead of what other markets are willing to confirm. Long-term Treasury yields barely budged. Gold remained near $4,800. Brent crude rose to $95 as the United States pressed ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.
“Stocks are basically expressing their view that the war in the Persian Gulf is almost over,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note.
Cryptocurrency derivatives desks are not pricing in the same conviction. QCP Capital wrote in a Telegram broadcast on Wednesday that bitcoin’s rally is spot-driven and not part of a broader new risk.
Bitcoin perpetual equity funding rates remain negative and open interest has softened, suggesting short sellers are leaning against the move rather than capitulating. Initial implied volatility remains moderate, one-month volatility is trading below three-month volatility, and 25-day to 30-day delta risk reversals still show more demand for downside protection than upside exposure.
Simply put, options markets are pricing caution even as spot prices recover. The price of bitcoin options expiring in the coming weeks is unusually calm for a real breakout, and traders are still paying to protect against a decline rather than betting on further upside. That is the signature of a rebound, not a change in trend.
“Markets may be trading the ceasefire angle, but the core risk remains unresolved,” QCP wrote. The firm pointed to the gap between Iran’s 60% enriched uranium and US demand for less than 20% as the structural problem that a framework holder cannot solve.
Ether’s outperformance is the only sign that cannot be explained by bitcoin-specific flows.
The widely watched ETH/BTC ratio, which tracks the price of ether against bitcoin, rose to around 0.0315 on Wednesday, rebounding from the February 2026 low near 0.028 and marking ether’s first sustained stretch of strength against bitcoin in months.
Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals have been diverging from price for weeks, with network transactions hitting a record 200.4 million in the first quarter and stablecoin supply hitting an all-time high of $180 billion.
Traders can watch the upcoming risk aversion session for signs. Ether holding up better than Bitcoin on a red day would suggest that the rotation towards riskier assets is real, while a steeper decline would indicate that Ether was simply riding the coattails of higher beta Bitcoin.
Traders are also watching whether the US-Iran framework survives negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program before the ceasefire expires next week. The QCP reading, that this is a relief to incumbents rather than a resolution, is the one worth testing first.
