The trend continues on all scales. In 2011, approximately $5 million in new money was enough to double the price of bitcoin. In this cycle, doing the same thing required about $101 billion. Each run has demanded exponentially more capital for a smaller percentage move, the arithmetic of an asset that now has a market value close to $1.2 trillion, according to CoinDesk data, instead of the few billion it had a decade ago.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, who published the data, called it a case of patience rather than a cap. “Bitcoin needs to be a fundamental macro asset, not just a retail-driven ETF trade,” he wrote, arguing that another parabolic run is only possible if bitcoin can absorb more than $1 trillion in fresh capital, which would push institutional adoption far beyond where it is today.
That vision comes at an uncomfortable time. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen record outflows over the past month, and bitcoin closed a loss-making first half, so the retail flows the thesis wants to outperform are running in reverse rather than generating the institutional depth it demands.
However, the skeptical reading is easier. Falling yields per dollar is what happens to any asset as it grows, as a larger base moves less in percentage terms no matter who is buying, and there is no guarantee that institutional money will reach the scale the bull case needs.
