bitcoin It fell to its lowest level on Thursday since April 13, when US airstrikes in the Strait of Hormuz dashed hopes for a ceasefire and sent a chill through global risk assets.
The largest cryptocurrency is currently trading near $73,400, down around 1.2% since midnight, but above the day’s low it hit around 6:30 UTC. Meanwhile, Ether (ETH) fell below $2,000 for the first time since March 29, losing 1.5%.
The immediate catalyst was a rise in oil prices. Crude jumped to $96 a barrel from $92 before settling at $94 during European morning trading, a move that stoked fresh concerns about inflation across markets.
US stock index futures are also feeling the pressure, with derivatives of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 falling 0.11% and 0.25%, respectively, reinforcing the general tone of risk aversion heading into the US session.
Derivatives positioning
- Liquidations totaled $958.8 million in the last 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $897 million versus just $61 million in short positions. The unbalanced decline follows a market decline rather than a strong two-way color.
- Bitcoin open interest barely budged, but the flat overall reading masks a 9.85% drop in CME open interest to $7.56 billion. Regulated futures are falling while offshore offenders are holding steady, and with neutral funding at 0.0058%, no one is chasing the move with leverage.
- Ether open interest rose to a record 16.39 million ETH ($32.61 billion), an increase of 0.61% in 24 hours, even as the token fell below $2,000. Rising open interest as the price falls indicates that traders are adding short positions in anticipation of deeper losses rather than buying on the dip.
- Open interest for XRP fell 0.49% to 2.28 billion XRP ($2.94 billion) as the token’s price softened. The simultaneous decline is interpreted as a closing of bullish bets rather than an opening of new shorts. Perpetual funding on
- About $8 billion in options expire on Deribit on Friday, $6.5 billion in bitcoin (approximately 86,000 contracts), and $1.4 billion in ether. The maximum pain for bitcoin is at $75,000, just above the spot price, with $375 million in sales accumulated in that exercise and $640 million in open interest accumulated at the $80,000 resistance line that marks the 200-day moving average.
- Deribit’s DVOL volatility index sits near 36, the eighth percentile for the past year, while ether volatility is at its first percentile and lowest since early 2024. Still, the 25 delta buying bias rises to +12.3% one week and +10.3% one month for bitcoin, so traders are paying for immediate downside protection even with overall volatility crushed.
symbolic talk
- The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) fell 2.9% after midnight UTC on Thursday as the broader altcoin market suffered from the relative weakness of bitcoin and ether.
- The lack of liquidity in several altcoin pairs caused exaggerated movements. The humanity protocol (H) fell more than 30% at 21:45 UTC on Wednesday before recovering almost instantly. It has increased by 26% since midnight UTC.
- These liquidations typically remove all resting orders from the order book, leaving a void for traders to take advantage of as bids and asks slowly begin to repopulate.
- It was also a difficult morning for AI tokens RENDER and FET, which fell 5.5% and 8.5%, respectively. DeFi tokens JUP and ETHFI also lost around 5%.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator plummeted to its lowest level in over 90 days. It currently stands at 30/100, reflecting a broader sentiment of risk aversion.
