Under a clear blue sky, a new type of electric plane flew from Kennedy International Airport to the heart of Manhattan in April of this year. The trip took about 10 minutes, a fraction of the hour or more it could take in a car.
The flight provided a glimpse of how the plane, manufactured by Joby Aviation and which combines features of a helicopter and an airplane, and others like it could one day operate in cities. It was made possible by a federal program that attempts to speed the arrival of what are often called air taxis.
Companies making the new electric planes and some industry experts say air taxis will one day replace helicopters and maybe even cars for some uses. But some skeptical experts say the plane will be more expensive than helicopters and will have relatively limited uses, noting that the industry has promised commercial flights for years but that no company has won federal approval to routinely transport passengers or cargo in the United States.
“It won’t be like we look out the window and there are flying cars everywhere,” said Laurie Garrow, an engineering professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology who specializes in aviation. “I think over the next two to five years, we’ll see these airplanes come into service and fill these market niches to boot.”
The Trump administration has been so eager to usher in that era that it created a program last year to encourage states, cities and companies to work together to help deploy electric aircraft for medical, cargo and passenger operations.
In March, the Department of Transportation selected eight projects in 26 states, including the one that enabled Joby’s pilot-only demonstration flight in New York.
A central goal of the administration’s efforts is to ensure that the United States does not fall behind China, which leads the world in commercial drones and is also developing air taxis; At least one company has received limited authorization for commercial flights using pilotless aircraft. The UAE has also been preparing for commercial air taxi flights in partnership with Joby and a rival manufacturer, Archer Aviation.
“The United States still bears the scars of the 2000s, when it abdicated the entire drone market to China,” said Sergio Cecutta, an aerospace consultant. “The idea of this push from Washington is to ensure this doesn’t happen again.”
The federal program allows limited operations, including some commercial flights, which air taxi companies say will help them gain flying experience and collect data. It also allows local government officials and residents to become more comfortable with the technology.
But air taxi companies cannot begin regular commercial flights until the Federal Aviation Administration certifies the plane after rigorous testing. It is unclear when the agency will certify its first air taxi.
There are three leading electric aviation companies in the United States: Joby, Archer and Beta Technologies. All three are developing planes that can take off and land like helicopters and move through the air like airplanes, while Beta is also developing a version that flies only like a plane, which it plans to bring to market first. A Boeing subsidiary, Wisk Aero, is also developing an air taxi, but that plane will be certified later, experts said, because it is expected to fly autonomously.
Toyota is a major investor in Joby and provides it with manufacturing expertise. Archer has a similar partnership with Stellantis, the parent company of Fiat, Jeep and Ram. And GE Aerospace has invested and is working on technology with Beta.
Joby’s demonstration flight departed Kennedy before noon on April 27. He landed minutes later at the West 30th Street helipad, just steps from Penn Station. Blade often uses the heliport, which connects cities with airports around the world with conventional helicopters. Blade sold its passenger business last year to Joby, which plans to eventually replace Blade’s helicopters with its own planes.
The most likely use for air taxis, which can generally fly short distances before needing to be recharged, is as a replacement for helicopters, which are noisy and relatively difficult to maintain, experts said. In the more distant future, the wealthy could use electric airplanes as a substitute for chauffeur-driven cars.
The widespread use of airplanes will depend mainly on how much they cost to manufacture, operate and maintain. Aviation experts are deeply divided over how that math will work.
Most analysts agree that air taxis will be expensive to produce at first. According to some experts, the plane could cost up to $5 million in the first few days, as much or more than a helicopter that can carry more passengers, travel farther and refuel more easily. It may also be difficult to speed up production because air taxis use lightweight, strong carbon composites, which are more expensive and difficult to manufacture than the aluminum, titanium, steel and other metals traditionally used for helicopters.
“It’s a huge hurdle for production,” said Bjorn Fehrm, an aeronautical and economic analyst at Leeham, an aerospace consulting firm.
Most experts say air taxis should have lower operating costs than helicopters, especially if they fly frequently. Newer planes will not rely on expensive jet fuel or complicated mechanical components. As air taxi companies build more planes, their executives say, the cost of each one will fall.
“The first thing is to scale it up, and then the unit economics will align,” Joby founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt said in an interview next to Joby’s plane after it landed in Manhattan in April.
But some experts say the intense power required to take off and land will overload the plane’s batteries, which could require frequent maintenance or replacement. They also say air taxis may not fly as frequently as their manufacturers hope because they will be limited by weather conditions, local regulations, pilot availability and other issues.
There will be other challenges. High-powered chargers will be needed at airports, heliports, or anywhere else an air taxi may land. In a report released last week, the Government Accountability Office said one airport estimated the cost of providing charging infrastructure at one location could cost about $2 million.
Eric Lentell, Archer’s chief legal and strategy officer, said the industry was improving its technology and production methods to reduce costs, similar to Tesla after it introduced its first model, the two-door Roadster sports car.
“If you look back at that Roadster, you’ll say, ‘That wasn’t a viable product in today’s market,’” he said.
But the biggest obstacle will be certification.
New versions of existing planes produced by Boeing and Airbus can take many months or even years to gain approval from the FAA and its European counterpart. A completely new type of plane could take longer. Aviation experts say regulators are likely to be even more cautious than in the past because Boeing’s 737 Max suffered two crashes that killed everyone on board. Those accidents, in 2018 and 2019, occurred just a few years after the plane was certified.
Joby, Archer and Beta have made progress with the FAA. None have said they have begun certification flight testing with pilots employed by the agency, an important step, although Joby says he hopes to begin those flights this year.
