The pressure comes from both directions. As Strategy issued more STRCs to fund bitcoin purchases, its annual dividend obligations skyrocketed from about $300 million in early 2026 to $1.2 billion now, a nearly four-fold increase in less than six months.
CryptoQuant noted that the reserve needed to reach about $2.8 billion, or 24 months of coverage, for STRC to recover. As such, Strategy reported a reserve of $1.1 billion in mid-June.
Therefore, your bitcoin offers less support than its size suggests.
“The company has an unrealized loss of $10.6 billion, with all Bitcoin purchased in 2024, 2025 and 2026 underwater,” CryptoQuant said. “Any forced sale of BTC at current prices would crystallize large losses and destroy shareholder value.”
However, a fire sale is unlikely any time soon. The strategy is not required to sell bitcoin to defend STRC and can instead increase the dividend or sell new shares to signal that it can continue paying, tools it is already using.
CryptoQuant’s prescription is for Strategy to stop its bitcoin purchases and rebuild the reserve first, and then take a systematic approach to timing purchases rather than buying every time it raises capital.
The strategy cannot simply cancel payments to save cash. STRC’s dividends are cumulative, meaning any missed payments still need to be made up later, and CryptoQuant said the company is unlikely to suspend them anyway because doing so would damage its credibility with the preferred holders it needs.
The report is a more accurate reading than what Benchmark-StoneX offered on Tuesday.
