Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC remain at a loss, meaning their holders paid more than the current price, versus 9.22 million that are still in profit, according to Glassnode data. It is the first time that deficit supply has exceeded profitable supply since the current cycle began and reflects how deep the correction has been since bitcoin’s January peak of $109,000.
Historically, these crossovers have landed near periods of peak financial stress and capitulation among new buyers. They have also marked the point at which currencies migrate from weaker hands to stronger hands, as only holders with high conviction tend to accept losses rather than sell. Long-term accumulation of holders and increasing portfolio cohort balances in various size brackets have gone hand in hand with this latest deterioration in profitability.
Bitcoin traded at $61,361 on Thursday, up 0.7% on the day and 2.5% on the week, still about 44% below January’s all-time high, according to data from CoinDesk. Ether added 4.2% to $1,702, and Solana led the majors with 18.6% for the week to $80.44, with volume exceeding $3.6 billion.
Whether the bid crossover marks a bottom depends on what comes next. In 2018-19 and 2022, similar readings preceded months of stabilization before a sustained recovery. The graph does not resolve itself. The return of ETF flows and the easing of macro pressure are what turn the accumulation signal into a price signal.
