Warns of intensified heat waves, water shortages and agricultural challenges likely over a three-month period
LAHORE:
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures are forecast over most parts of the country during June and the next three-month period.
According to the Meteorological Department, the El Niño phase has re-emerged in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to persist in the coming months as long as the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral. These climatic conditions can lead to uneven spatial distribution of rainfall across Pakistan.
According to outlook reports and Lahore Director of Meteorology Aleemul Hassan, intensified heat waves, water shortages and increased challenges for agriculture may emerge during the three-month period.
The country received an average of 22.4 millimeters of rain in May 2026, around 10% below normal levels. Meanwhile, the average temperature for the month stood at 29.2 degrees Celsius, 0.8 degrees above the long-term average.
In Punjab, 29.7 millimeters of rain was recorded during May, 19% above normal, while Sindh recorded only 0.3 millimeters, a deficit of 91%. Balochistan remained 71% below normal, while Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) recorded rainfall 33% above normal.
In its monthly outlook for June 2026, the PMD said rainfall was likely to remain near normal or slightly below normal in most parts of the country. The largest rainfall deficits were expected in northeastern Punjab, Kashmir and adjoining areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
In contrast, GB and Upper PK are likely to receive slightly above-normal rainfall during June, according to the monthly outlook.
Read: Weather in Lahore becomes pleasant after rain and hailstorm in several areas
Meanwhile, temperatures were expected to remain above normal across the country during the month of June, with the warming trend likely to be more pronounced in GB, Kashmir and northern KP. Heat wave conditions may also intensify in the southern plains of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan.
According to the PMD’s seasonal assessment, Pakistan received 148 millimeters of rain between March and May 2026, 26% above normal. Meanwhile, the average temperature remained 1 degree Celsius above the long-term average.
During this period, Punjab recorded 31% above normal rainfall, while the same in Sindh was 106% above normal.
However, during the period from June to August, weather patterns were expected to change. According to the Meteorological Department, below-normal rainfall is likely to persist over most parts of Punjab, Sindh, lower KP and Balochistan.
On the other hand, northern areas, particularly GB, northern KP and Kashmir, may receive normal to above normal rainfall. Northeast Punjab was expected to experience the highest rainfall deficit during the period.
Read more: El Niño warming will return in mid-2026: UN
Regarding the impact that the expected weather may have on the agricultural sector, the PMD warned that reduced rainfall may negatively affect the sowing of the Kharif crop as well as its early development. However, irrigation needs may increase.
At the same time, increased precipitation in northern regions, coupled with accelerated snowmelt, may increase the risk of glacial floods (GLOF), flash floods and landslides.
The outlook report for the three-month period also noted that prolonged heat, intermittent rain and rising humidity levels may also raise the risk of vector-borne diseases, including dengue. Sharp temperature gradients can also cause dust storms, strong winds and hailstorms, which could damage crops, orchards and infrastructure.
The Meteorological Department advised farmers to check weather advisories before making decisions on irrigation and harvesting. He also urged the public to exercise caution during periods of extreme heat, rain and travel to mountainous regions.
