Prediction markets are shifting from one-off bets tied to major events to platforms driven by daily user engagement, according to a new report from Bitget Wallet in partnership with Polymarket.
Trading volume at Polymarket reached $25.7 billion in March, but the report points to a deeper behavioral shift. Based on the activity of 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter, users are returning more frequently and participating in a broader range of markets, from cryptocurrencies to sports and politics.
The data suggests that growth is being driven by frequency rather than trade size. More than 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during the quarter, a sign that the market remains dominated by retail participants. Instead of placing large, infrequent bets, users place smaller trades more regularly.
“Prediction markets are becoming less focused on capital and more focused on consistent, repeat actions,” said Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet. “What we are seeing is a change in behavior: the market is scaling with more accesses per day, not with larger operations.”
Cryptocurrencies remain the main entry point for new users and represent almost 40% of initial activity. Its continuous trading and familiar price movements make it a natural starting point. But as users become more active, participation shifts toward markets tied to real-world events.
The report frames this evolution as a structural change. Prediction markets are no longer driven solely by spikes around major events like elections. Instead, they are becoming continuous systems that users return to periodically to track and respond to changing probabilities.
“As prediction markets evolve into a core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself,” said Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket. “We are seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.”
That shift is also changing the way these markets are used. Prices increasingly reflect real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics and culture, and are beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
Growth has accelerated rapidly. Monthly trading volume has increased from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025 to more than $20 billion by early 2026, while active portfolios have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach a volume of $240 billion this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is on access and usability. Wallets are emerging as key entry points, helping users discover and interact with markets in real time.
