bitcoin is down 3% in Asian morning trading, holding near $77,000 as markets prepare for a week packed with macro catalysts. The move seems driven more by caution than a change in sentiment.
In a note to CoinDesk, Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, said traders are reluctant to push bitcoin higher ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision and a series of data releases later in the week, including GDP, PCE inflation and the employment cost index. Together, those numbers will determine expectations for when, or if, the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates in the second half of the year.
For now, the biggest limitation is oil. Brent crude oil remains above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and raising the bar for a dovish signal from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
According to Enflux, the market is operating under two opposing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but that any resolution will not come quickly enough to influence policy in the near term. That combination has effectively ruled out rate cuts for June (Polymarket bettors give a 95% chance of “no change”) and created a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets.
In that environment, bitcoin has struggled to break through key technical levels. The cryptocurrency is trading about 4% below its short-term holder cost basis, near $80,700, a level often seen as an indicator of marginal buyer conviction.
Overcoming it decisively would probably require a clear signal from the Federal Reserve that oil-fueled inflation will prove temporary. Absent that, Enflux expects Bitcoin to trade tentatively in Thursday’s data release, with a steeper move more likely linked to macro prints than the Fed statement itself.
Beyond this week, a less visible force may also be shaping bitcoin’s next moves. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of demand for AI.
Publicly traded BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt while selling parts of their treasuries to house AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining.
A slowdown in this pivot could, in theory, slow sales.
When computing demand is strong, miners have both the incentive and funding to keep building, often leading to continued sales of BTC to fund capital spending and debt service.
But if OpenAI’s failure indicates that AI growth may not keep pace with those expectations, the dynamic becomes more complex. A slowdown in AI expansion could eventually ease miner-driven sales, eliminating a source of supply.
The problem is timing: Selling pressure on semiconductor and data stocks, due to weaker technology and risk appetite, would likely send the cryptocurrency market tumbling, while any relief from slowing miner sales would come later.
In that sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux’s broader point. The market is caught between competing macroeconomic forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most in terms of price.
For now, that keeps bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, awaiting a clearer signal.
