Others took a more macro view. Strive CEO Jack Mallers, among others, described the bitcoin selloff as a warning of a macro fiat liquidity crisis. Bitcoin has a history of acting early and aggressively on liquidity changes and is often considered one of the most sensitive assets to changes in money supply growth, Treasury operations, and general financial conditions.
Average claims increased to 10.3% of shares from 9.7% in the first quarter, but varied widely (1.3%–38.1% in Blue Owl’s OTIC). Many requests were complementary from investors who were only partially satisfied last quarter. New inflows fell by about 56% on average, so most funds recorded net outflows of about 3% of the previous quarter’s net asset value.
Therefore, Fitch expects repayments to continue in the coming months.
“As BDCs cap refunds at 5% quarterly, unfulfilled claims will lead to persistently high refunds for many companies in the coming quarters,” the ratings agency Fitch warned.
Same story but different structures.
Bitcoin ETFs are liquid, exchange-traded vehicles, where outflows directly impact the BTC spot price. Private credit BDCs are the opposite: long-duration, illiquid lending vehicles with built-in quarterly accesses.
Still, the fact that investors rushed out of both at the same time points to greater caution around liquidity and risk appetite. Amid all this, energy markets continue to send signals of risk aversion, with the US strategic oil reserve falling to the lowest level since 1983. Therefore, if the energy market remains disrupted, the government now has much less room to flood the market with oil and keep prices low.
