Islamabad:
As the anti-terrorist courts begin to transmit verdicts in the riot cases of May 9, political bets for the Pakistan Tehreek-E-Insaf (PTI) and its founding president, Imran Khan, are not only intensifying, but also enter a new phase of vulnerability.
The reported conviction of a PTI member in the National Assembly, among others, marks more than a legal precedent, since it indicates the beginning of an increasing pressure campaign in the party, as it is legally lengthened for another attempt to claim the streets.
But before PTI can rekindle his power on the street, he must first deal with three compound challenges: harden legal robbery, the growing internal disorder exacerbated by the imprisonment and isolation of Imran Khan, and a broad abyss between the party and the powerful rooms.
Taken together, these dynamics have left the disoriented party politically, legally cornered and strategically drift.
The violence of May 9, caused by the arrest of the newly appointed PTIR pattern of PTI in a corruption case, unleashed disturbances throughout the country, including unprecedented attacks in military facilities.
The state’s response was rapid and broad, with a repression that led to the arrest of dozens of leaders and followers, many now face anti -terrorist charges.
As convictions begin to arrive, political analysts believe that the cost of organizing a new agitation is growing every day.
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency of Pakistan (Pildat), sees this as a crucial moment.
“The Government and the establishment have emerged stronger and safer, especially after the recent [Pak-India] The four -day war, “he said, and added” support for agitation against the government and the establishment of PTI and its allies has also suffered a greater setback. “
When commenting on the consequences of the convictions, the head of Pildat said there was a greater probability of hardest punishment for the accused of May 9, and added: “This judgment is indicative of the future trend of harder actions.”
Mehboob felt that the void at the top was another factor that aggravated the legal challenges for both Khan and the party.
Regarding the question of whether PTI’s call to the protest would gain traction, especially after the boss pattern first asked for conversations with the establishment and then announced a protest movement of the prison, Mehboob felt that Imran Khan suffers from a lack of clarity in communication because he cannot communicate directly from behind.
He pointed out that visitors narrate Khan’s point of view with an inclination that reflects his personal views, which are often contradictory.
“Apparently, there is no clear and well -considered policy that the party has decided to continue,” he said by including the reasons to constantly obtain confused signs of PTI.
Mehboob said that it shows a confusing state, that it is quite natural in a situation in which “the supreme leader is behind the bar and isolated; and the rest of the party officials lack the trust and the authority to make a decision, since Khan can embarrass them and reject them at any time.”
Meanwhile, PTI’s relationship with the powerful interested parties has reached a new minimum.
An example of this was witnessed when the party was excluded from the dinner of a high -level field marshal to celebrate the victory in the recent war, which experts believe it was a symbolic desaul but that revealed.
The only invitation extended to PTI was sent to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s prime minister Ali Amin Gandapur. Even so, the event jumped to attend a party meeting on the launch of Khan, an act that some was seen as a challenge, but others as a lost opportunity.
“PTI should decide to act as a” revolutionary “party opting for the path of street agitation (which, in my opinion, can be a suicidal path) or act as a responsible political party that governs a province and can govern the country again,” said Mehboob.
He said that PTI should not lose his official duties as a great political party and as the government of the province, and participate in all those state ceremonies and meetings such as dinner organized by the Marshal of the Campo. “Trying on two ships can get the party in the mud,” he concluded.
By sharing his views on the challenges facing PTI, Professor Tahir Naeem Malik at the University of Numl said the verdict in the cases of May 9 made it absolutely clear that the State was not going to be easy with PTI.
“The verdicts of May 9 are not just legal judgments,” said the professor, “are part of a broader message that the State intends to draw a hard line.”
When commenting on Khan’s desire to maintain direct conversations with the establishment, which was quickly followed by his announcement to begin a new protest movement, Professor Malik said it was the result of a lack of coordination between the leadership of the party, since they do not obtain frequent opportunities to devise political strategies AMID circumstances.
“The upper leadership is in jail and cannot take stock of the situation that changes rapidly, while the external ones cannot make decisions on their own,” said Professor Malik, “this has created confusion if negotiating or resisting; therefore, facing paralysis.”
However, Malik said that the support of voters is still there for PTI, but it seems that the ability of the party to turn that into action has been reduced, and added that the slogans alone will not be enough without adequate coordination and a clear plan.
In the cracks, he said, with some form of reconciliation or restart, it is difficult to see how PTI recover the political space through traditional channels.
