Mow is not the first to argue that bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle has changed. After bitcoin rose to an all-time high ahead of the April 2024 halving, several analysts suggested Rising institutional demand following the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US could disrupt the pattern that has historically followed each halving. Others, however, argued that it was too early to conclude that the cycle had changed.
$55,000 most likely
Not everyone agrees. Several analysts have recently argued that Bitcoin is close to bottoming out in the market or has yet to fall further, although they are based on different indicators and models.
CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole recently wrote that if one was “wondering how much bitcoin would fall, the answer, at least according to a historically accurate contrarian indicator, is not much.”
That indicator is based on bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week average, which represents about one year, is very close to falling below the 100-week line, forming what analysts call a “bearish crossover.” Historically, similar signals coincided with market lows, leading some analysts to view the pattern as bullish.
More recently, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said he believes the most likely bottom is the $55,000 level and not until sometime between August and October. Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMex, took a more bearish stance, saying bitcoin would bottom out around $40,000 in the next six months.
