bitcoin It is up almost 10% this month, but the rally is running into resistance near $75,000. The pause is notable as US stocks hit all-time highs.
On-chain data shows that holders are selling strongly, which helps explain the slowdown.
This follows an on-chain indicator called realized profit/loss, which tracks the total dollar value of profits or losses locked in by holders when they move their coins on-chain. The indicator compares the current price at which coins are moving with the price at which they last moved (the assumed acquisition cost), effectively showing whether investors are selling at a profit or loss.
Values above 1 indicate further profit taking, and the 30-day EMA is currently well above that threshold. The EMA is used to smooth out daily noise and highlight the broader trend in profits made.
“Profit-taking activity is increasing, with the 30D EMA of the realized profit/loss ratio at 1.16, indicating that investors are selling strongly. A sustained move above $78,100 will require the market to absorb this overall bid,” the firm said in a report.
Profit taking was particularly strong on Tuesday when Bitcoin briefly rose to $76,000 before quickly falling below $75,000. According to CryptoQuant, investors made around $1.14 billion in profits during the move, one of the largest single-day readings this year.
The indicator, although widely followed, has limitations, mainly because it assumes that coins that move on the chain are being sold. In reality, they may simply be moving between wallets or exchanges for custody, rebalancing, or internal transfers.
That said, the latest profit-taking signal aligns with other indicators, such as cumulative volume delta, suggesting that demand is concentrated on specific exchanges, while activity remains weaker elsewhere.
CVD is a measure of who is more aggressive in the market. It shows whether the market is being driven more by buyers demanding liquidity or sellers making offers.
So far, buyers have been aggressive primarily on Binance, but not as much on Coinbase or other exchanges, according to Glassnode.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, the India-based FIU-registered exchange, echoed the sentiment and said sentiment is improving but conviction is not yet fully established.
“Funding rates remain slightly negative, showing that traders remain cautious and are not yet leaning aggressively long-term. On-chain activity has slowed. This suggests the market is consolidating, not overheating,” he said.
Additionally, bitcoin options trading on Deribit continues to show a bias towards puts across all time frames. Indicates persistent bearish fears and demand for protection offered by put options.
Taken together, profit-taking pressure, uneven spot demand and cautious derivatives positioning indicate that buyers are absorbing supply but not yet overwhelming it.
