Somehow, you can feel it in your bones. A momentous wave of anxiety has swept across a world struggling to cope with the impact and potential consequences of the unfinished war in Iran. We are about to reach a turning point in history and no one knows how it will play out.
But there are certain messages that we can already decipher. In an allegorical sense, we have seen the impotence of power. And there is this example of how a battered country that has suffered enormous losses of life and property can find strength and influence with its strategic response to a powerful force.
It would be difficult for a creative writer to imagine this story. Perhaps you prefer to tell it in the mode of magical realism. Or we would need a Homer to do this because the events of the last two months have hints of Greek mythology. And the great challenge in any fictional presentation of the Iran war would be to draw the character played in reality by President Donald Trump of the United States.
I may be forgiven for this fanciful digression. It is largely due to my inability to bring together different perspectives and adequately interpret events on numerous fronts. There are so many surprises and wonders that this war has generated. And there are still more twists and turns in a story that has its roots in the very nature of relations between Iran and the United States, with Israel pulling the strings behind the curtain.
Although President Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire just hours before the initial two-week ceasefire expired, a war situation has continued due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This affects the entire world and intensifies energy and economic crises that were completely unforeseen when the United States and Israel began their essentially pointless war.
We, in Pakistan, must understand our very complex and intimate relationship with this war. There is no doubt that we are in a very good position in this regard. Our diplomatic triumph in becoming a mediator is a remarkable achievement that allows ordinary citizens to feel proud of their country.
But we also have to pay the cost of this conflict and I don’t see much attention being paid to this issue on an intellectual level. A massive disruption in the affairs of the countries of the Gulf region, particularly the United Arab Emirates, will soon have a major impact on our economic and social sectors.
There are many things that are hotly debated in our informal conversations. I’m a little surprised by the passion that people I know put into these discussions. They are also baffled by some outcomes of this ongoing war. This widely accepted perception of Iran’s astonishing resistance to American aggression is generating great excitement. So what upheavals will mark the birth of a new order? Where does China belong in this equation?
As I said, things are not easily understood. Overall, it is a bleak situation that highlights different problems in all countries. At the time of writing, a glimmer of hope has emerged with the prospect of the second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, the city that has been under security lockdown for more than a week. How this excessive security has affected the lives of citizens and even created food and fuel shortages is another story.
Still, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit coincided with the announcement by a senior White House official in Washington, DC, that Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy, and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, were returning to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials.
This means that the second round of talks would be held at a lower level, in the absence of Vice President JD Vance and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. They would be expected to join the talks if a deal is deemed possible. Since Iran has become more influential after 38 days of war, it will surely want to reach a tough deal.
In the meantime, I would like to highlight two reports I read this week that explain some of the unbearable costs of war with Iran. One is a UN warning that this war will push more than 30 million people back into poverty and increase food insecurity in the coming months. The other has to do with the incredible cost of the war to the United States in terms of high-value military equipment.
Alexander De Croo, administrator of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), said on Thursday: “Even if the war ended tomorrow, we already have these effects and they will push more than 30 million people into poverty.” He warned of other consequences of the war, including energy shortages and falling remittances.
He said the disruption to fuel and fertilizer supplies due to the blockage of cargo ships through the Strait of Hormuz has already reduced agricultural productivity and will affect first yields later this year.
a report in The New York TimesCiting administration and congressional officials, he said the Iran war has depleted American supplies of expensive and critical weapons. The Pentagon’s rush to rearm its forces in the Middle East has left it less prepared to confront potential adversaries, such as China and Russia.
Although White House officials have so far declined to estimate the cost of the conflict, two independent groups say the spending is staggering: between $28 billion and $35 billion, just under $1 billion a day. In the first two days alone, the military used $5.6 billion in ammunition.
Let me conclude with what Senator Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said this week: “At current production rates, rebuilding what we’ve spent could take years.”
And yet, the United States has achieved none of its goals.
The writer is an experienced journalist. He can be contacted at: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of PakGazette.tv.
Originally published in The News
