Wall Street trader Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to reach roughly $1 trillion by 2030, as the sector evolves from niche bets to broad-based “information markets” spanning sports, cryptocurrencies, politics and economics.
Volumes reached $51 billion last year and are on track to reach around $240 billion in 2026, implying roughly 80% compound annual growth through the end of the decade, according to the report. Activity has already accelerated in 2026, with Polymarket and Kalshi recording combined year-to-date volumes of $60 billion.
“Increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level is expanding the addressable market, while blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets is enabling global liquidity, long-tail event creation, and institution participation,” wrote analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.
Prediction markets have grown from a niche of academic and cryptographic experimentation to a rapidly growing segment of global trading activity in just a few years.
Volumes have skyrocketed alongside major news cycles, particularly the 2024 US election, while platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded access beyond politics to sporting, crypto and macroeconomic events.
The combination of a clearer regulatory foundation in the US, better user experience, and the integration of blockchain-based liquidity has accelerated adoption, pushing the sector toward mainstream relevance.
The report attributed the growth to improved federal regulatory clarity, which expands access beyond fragmented state-level rules of the game, along with a blockchain-based infrastructure that enables global liquidity and the rapid creation of new event contracts.
Sports currently accounts for around 62% of volumes, benefiting from lower effective take rates than traditional online sportsbooks. But analysts expect that proportion to fall to about 31% by 2030, as cryptocurrency-linked contracts and macro, political and economic events gain traction. Institutional participation is also expected to grow, particularly to cover event-driven risks.
10.8 billion dollars in revenue
Bernstein analysts estimate that industry revenue could expand from approximately $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, reaching around $10.8 billion in 2030 at the current rate of acquisition. Even with a significant reduction in fees, they see potential to generate a multi-million dollar revenue pool.
Distribution is emerging as a key competitive moat. The report pointed to Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) as early leaders, leveraging their tens of millions of users combined.
Robinhood has already built $350 million in annualized revenue from prediction markets and is moving toward owning exchange infrastructure, while Coinbase entered through Kalshi with nationwide access to more than 1,000 contracts, the report added.
The broker has an outperform rating on both Coinbase and Robinhood.
Read more: Why Cantor Fitzgerald thinks Robinhood and Coinbase are the best ways to take advantage of the prediction market boom
