Roundhill Investments will launch the first US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to prediction markets next week, and two other asset managers are preparing similar products.
According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Roundhill will list six funds tied to whether Democrats or Republicans control the White House, Senate and House.
The launch is scheduled for May 5, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
The funds are the Roundhill Democratic President ETF (BLUP), the Republican President ETF (REDP), the Democratic Senate ETF (BLUS), the Republican Senate ETF (REDS), the Democratic House ETF (BLUH), and the Republican House ETF (REDH).
House and Senate products are tied to who controls them after the Nov. 3, 2026 election, while presidential products target the Nov. 7, 2028 race.
The funds gain exposure through swap agreements that reference binary event contracts traded on markets regulated by the CFTC. These contracts settle at $1 if an outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.
The prospectus warns in all-caps text that if the target party does not prevail, “the fund will lose substantially all of its value.”
Roundhill will not cancel the funds after the agreement. Once the market prices a winner above $0.995 or below $0.005 for five consecutive trading days, the fund treats the outcome as decided and moves on to the next cycle, the 2028 House and Senate exposure for midterm funds and the 2032 presidential race for BLUP and REDP.
The prospectus notes that if the market is later proven wrong, there will be “no recourse” for shareholders.
Bitwise and GraniteShares submitted identical lists of six funds in February, with Bitwise using a “PredictionShares” brand. Their structures differ as Bitwise funding ends shortly after each result is determined, while GraniteShares, like Roundhill, rolls forward until the next election.
Political event contracts already trade on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, but wrapping them in ETFs could expand access by allowing them to be held in regular brokerage accounts and some retirement accounts.
The push comes after the CFTC in February withdrew a Biden-era proposal that would have banned political event contracts, although state regulators in Massachusetts, New York, Nevada and elsewhere continue to challenge the underlying contracts in court.
Roundhill also filed to list non-political prediction market ETFs tied to whether the United States will enter a recession, according to a filing noted by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
