Meteorologists have warned that a rare “monster” El Niño will hit this summer, potentially becoming one of the most powerful such events since records began in the 1870s.
El Niño is a natural weather pattern that occurs when there is an increase in sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and repeats every two to seven years.
It is caused by the alteration of the usual air flow pattern and the transport of warm water to the coasts of South America.
It usually occurs when warm water from the western Pacific moves towards South America. Because of this change, cold, nutrient-rich water rising (upwelling) near Peru causes an increase in atmospheric temperature, which ultimately changes atmospheric circulation and changes global weather patterns.
Data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that there is now a 100% chance of a super El Niño forming in November.
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are expected to rise to almost 3 degrees Celsius above average.
This threshold is the highest ever recorded. The planet had not seen an El Niño of such scale since 1877-78.
What this means for the climate
This super El Niño can cause major global climate disruptions.
In New England, unprecedented summer heat is expected, as well as more heat waves, higher levels of humidity and above-normal rainfall due to heavy rainfall from coastal storms.
During a typical El Niño period, hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin is limited by strong wind shear, while storms increase in the eastern Pacific basin.
Winter conditions in the south may be wetter and snowier than average, while winter weather in the north may be milder and less humid.
Global consequences
These climate disruptions can lead to food shortages, water disruptions, and even civil conflicts in vulnerable tropical countries.
New heat wave records are about to be set, as potentially the biggest El Niño event is about to occur.
