As the standoff over the frozen Iran war threatens a global economic collapse, Washington and Tehran have scaled back their efforts to reach a comprehensive peace deal and are now seeking a limited deal that will postpone the toughest issues.
Here’s what we know about the proposals under discussion and where they leave the war’s big unresolved disputes behind:
What stage are the discussions at?
Sources on both sides have said the latest peace efforts are aimed at a temporary memorandum of understanding to stop the war and allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while they discuss a more comprehensive agreement.
The proposed framework would be developed in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and opening a 30-day period for negotiations on a broader agreement.
Gaps remain even in this limited plan, sources have said. Any broader agreement would have to address intractable disputes such as Iran’s nuclear program. The last agreement on the nuclear program, reached in 2015 and torn apart by Trump in 2018, required years of negotiations between large teams of technical experts.
What are the main problems?
End the war: US President Donald Trump says the war is close to over and can be resolved if Iran agrees to the terms. Iran does not trust him or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Iranian officials point to their decision to strike in February despite a ceasefire that ended a previous air campaign between the United States and Israel last year. Both conflicts began without warning during efforts to resolve the issues diplomatically. Tehran also cites Israeli attacks during ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon as reasons to believe a truce will not hold and wants some form of external guarantee.
Hormuz and the Gulf Blockade: Tehran views its control of Hormuz and Washington views its blockade of Iranian ports as its main points of influence. But both sides are suffering. Iran’s economy faces catastrophe and its inability to export oil could mean a storage crisis and production cuts. Meanwhile, its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is causing a global energy crisis months before the US midterm elections. Iran wants formal recognition of its control over Hormuz, although this would be opposed internationally.
Nuclear: The United States believes that Iran wants to build a nuclear bomb. Iran has always denied this, saying its atomic program is for peaceful purposes only. The focus is on uranium enrichment, which generates fuel for nuclear power but can also make material for a nuclear warhead. Washington wants Iran to give up its right to enrich itself for 20 years and hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Iran wants its right to enrichment recognized. It may eventually be possible to reach an agreement that includes a years-long moratorium on the enrichment and export of its highly enriched uranium, but that still seems far off.
Ballistic missile: One of the main demands of the United States before the war was that Iran limit the range of its ballistic missiles so that they could not reach Israel. He says his war has succeeded in degrading Iran’s missile stockpile and it is unclear whether he will continue to insist on range limits in a broader peace deal. Iran has always refused to discuss its ballistic missiles, saying its right to conventional weapons cannot be on the table and that it still has a large arsenal.
Sanctions and frozen assets: Iran’s economy has been hit by sanctions for years, contributing to January’s national unrest. Tehran urgently needs frozen assets to be lifted and released. He also wants reparations for war damage, although there now appears no chance the United States will agree to this, and it is unclear whether it will meet the demand as a condition of a deal.
Iran has previously said that Israel’s war against its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon must be included in any peace deal. Israel rejects this and it is unclear to what extent Iran will insist on it in future talks.
What do Israel and the Gulf States think?
Israel is not directly involved in the peace effort. Netanyahu was eager to continue the war and would also resist subjecting Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah to an agreement between Washington and Tehran.
The Gulf states are not united on how to end the conflict. Iran has attacked them throughout the war and would oppose a deal that would allow Iran to continue hitting them or impose controls in the Strait of Hormuz, their main trade route. They may fear that Washington will not prioritize their needs and concerns in the talks.
Could European states, China or Russia play a role?
European states have their own sanctions against Iran and would want to participate in any agreement aimed at resolving the nuclear dispute. France, Germany and Britain were closely involved in the 2015 agreement. European countries have offered to play a role in ensuring free passage in Hormuz after the war.
China is a major buyer of Gulf oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran can hope to agree to be a guarantor in any deal, but has given no indication it would want that role.
Iran might also want Russia to play a role in any eventual deal on its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, although it is unclear whether Washington would agree to it.
